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The confused and contradictory situation was greeted with gloomy silence by the Reagan Administration, which had worked hard to try to ensure a free, fair and, above all, credible outcome to the balloting. In Washington, State Department officials said that they would delay any formal U.S. response to the election until this week. Nonetheless, Spokesman Bernard Kalb took note of the reports of fraud and violence and termed them "regrettable." Privately, one Administration official disclosed that he and his colleagues were observing the Philippine developments with "nausea." Said he: "Marcos is running scared. He is letting it all hang out, and doesn't care who sees him. It's a bigger mess than we expected."
The murky outcome left the Administration in an excruciating dilemma. It was American unhappiness with the drift of Marcos' government and ensuing social restiveness in the Philippines that led him to call the surprise election last November. For months Administration officials had been publicly warning that the far-flung country was drifting toward a dangerous right-left polarization. On the right stands Marcos. On the left is an insurgency spearheaded by the estimated 16,500 members of the Communist New People's Army, which has been steadily gaining in force. As has happened so often before, the political center was in danger of disappearing. The Administration was also worried about the fate of its two most important military installations in the Pacific, Subic Bay Naval Base and Clark Air Base. Both are in the Philippines, and both are subject to a lease that expires in 1991.
Marcos' call for elections caught Washington flat-footed. The strongman, who suffers from a form of systemic lupus erythematosus, a disease that often affects the kidneys, had grown increasingly withdrawn from the country's plight; he had craftily evaded previous U.S. pressures for reform. Most experts were skeptical that the vote would lead to any significant power shift in Manila. But among many Filipinos, the notion that the balloting might lead to change seemed to take on a life of its own. Philippine voters might even provide the occasion for an all too rare peaceful transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
Organizationally, the odds were always stacked in favor of Marcos and his governing New Society Movement (K.B.L.). The President's war chest bulged with about $160 million in campaign funds, and he also had at his disposal uncounted millions from the government pork barrel.
As the campaign wore on, Marcos scattered more and more giveaways from the stump. At a typical stop in the economically depressed, sugar-producing province of Negros Occidental, where anti-Marcos sentiment is known to be strong, the President went on just such a vote-getting spree. He announced the gift of $25 million in additional credits for a sugar-marketing organization, a cut in interest rates for sugar planters from 42% to 16%, a reduction in the cost of area electricity, and the electrification of some nearby towns. His audience of farmers and townspeople, many of whom had been paid between $1.50 and $2.50 to attend the rally, applauded each announcement fervidly.