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The N.P.A. bases its plans on classic Maoist theory, which sees three stages in a protracted war: the "strategic defensive," during which a Communist base is built; the "strategic stalemate," during which guerrilla forces achieve equal footing with government troops; and the "strategic offensive," when rebels force government troops into a defensive posture. According to both the military and the Communist Party, the insurgency is now nearing the end of the first stage. A stronger military response could forestall the next phase, but the best guarantee against further N.P.A. gains would be economic prosperity and the renewal of credible democracy.