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With those rival displays of unity, the Philippine campaign season was under way. On the K.B.L. side, Marcos demonstrated beyond any doubt that he is firmly in charge of his party and, in his choice of Tolentino, that he has not lost his talent for surprises. On the opposition side, the new ticket was the most powerful in recent memory. Aquino, while politically inexperienced, has a reputation for moral integrity that is certain to attract voters fed up with the corruption, economic mismanagement and military ineptitude that have marked the later Marcos years. She will also benefit from her connection with the martyred Ninoy Aquino. Former Senator Laurel brings to the ticket, in addition to his own savvy as a veteran politician, the well-oiled political machinery of UNIDO, the country's third-strongest political force, after Marcos' K.B.L. and the illegal Communist-led National Democratic Front, whose military arm is the New People's Army.
While there are no reliable polls to gauge voter preferences, Laurel predicted last week that the opposition would capture 80% of the vote in a "fairly clean election" and 70% in a "fairly dirty" one. The estimate seems wildly optimistic. True, the anti-Marcos forces enjoy a pronounced edge in metropolitan Manila, home of 4 million of the country's 25 million registered voters and the region where the opposition captured 16 of 21 assembly seats contested in last year's parliamentary elections. But in most of the country's 73 provinces, the K.B.L. still commands strong voter loyalty.
Moreover, the united opposition slate may actually cost Aquino votes among her more radical supporters, many of whom regard the vice-presidential candidate as a latecomer to the anti-Marcos cause. Laurel, who is married and has eight children, was a Senator before the 1972 declaration of martial law; unlike other leading opposition figures, he suffered neither imprisonment nor serious loss of fortune under the emergency. In 1978 he won a seat in the interim National Assembly as a K.B.L. candidate, and he did not become an active member of the opposition until 1982. Although Laurel made a name for himself during the 1970s by founding the country's first legal aid society, leftist opposition members are largely unimpressed by his record as an advocate of the poor. Instead, they see the Yale-educated lawyer as a slick machine politician who will cozy up to U.S. interests and bring about little change in the lives of ordinary Filipinos. Late last week there were signs that dissatisfied opposition factions might boycott the elections.
Marcos' opponents can ill afford to have any potential supporters stay home. Despite the President's sinking popularity since the Aquino assassination in August 1983, Marcos remains a formidable foe. He has two decades of uninterrupted rule under his belt and an almost unbroken record of imposing his will on the 54 million people of the 7,000-island archipelago. He has tight control of the country's electoral apparatus and could easily rig the elections, as he has been charged with doing in the past. Even if he allows an honest contest, the incumbency gives him an enormous campaign advantage with the power to dispense favors and reward supporters. While the Aquino forces hope to raise $28 million for the campaign, K.B.L. insiders expect Marcos to spend at least $150 million during the next two months.