(2 of 2)
But MYCIN had a couple of fatal flaws. For one thing, it was designed to replace doctors in their roles as diagnosticians, an approach that was not likely to endear it to its potential users; in fact, it was never actually put into regular hospital use. Moreover, it lacked a quality possessed by most human experts: awareness of its limitations. Confronted with a case outside its narrow field of expertise, MYCIN failed miserably. Says M.I.T.'s Davis: "If you brought MYCIN a bicycle with a flat tire, it would do its best to find you an antibiotic."
Today's expert systems are far less ambitious and much more practical. Shortliffe's current project, for example, is a program called ONCOCIN, which helps cancer specialists plan their patients' drug therapies. As the doctor fills out a series of forms displayed on the screen, the program interprets his data, recommending dosages, watching out for cumulative toxicity effects, searching its store of medical lore for similar cases and offering bits of diplomatic advice. "This is a fundamental shift," says Beau Sheil, manager of product development for Xerox Artificial Intelligence Systems. "More and more expert systems are being configured to act not as experts, but as knowledgeable assistants."
Last week in Los Angeles, these computerized assistants were everywhere. Scientists at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Group had developed a system that helps Navy firemen track the spread of fires on aircraft carriers. Another firm, Teknowledge, was touting a prototype system for the National Weather Service that might someday help predict flash floods and hailstorms. Inference Corp., working with NASA, is developing a battery of expert assistants for the space shuttle that would monitor orbital trajectories, maintain life-support systems and help manage the hundreds of routine glitches that slow up the turnaround time between missions. Says Michael Taylor of Tektronix: "The purpose is not to replace human beings, but to make them more productive."
For every system demonstrated at UCLA, there are many more being kept under wraps. The Department of Defense, for example, discreetly supports artificial intelligence projects in battlefield management and satellite surveillance. The details of many commercial systems are also being closely guarded. One of these is a financial adviser's "workstation," developed by Applied Expert Systems of Cambridge, Mass. Due for release late in September, it is designed to help top brokers sort through the fast-changing array of new investment vehicles and determine which mix of 120 different possibilities will yield the greatest return.
Although expert systems grew out of AI research, there is little danger that these narrowly focused systems will supplant many of man's cerebral, decision- making roles. "This is a nuts-and-bolts business," says Lee Hecht, president of Teknowledge. "The only thing we tell our clients is that we can save them time and money, improve their operations and make them more effective and efficient." Not bad for nuts and bolts.