(2 of 2)
This does not, of course, mean German armies retracing the path of the Wehrmacht. But it does mean Germany coming to dominate the political economy of the Continent. Would such a Germany continue to, in effect, sustain and subsidize much of the European Community? Would it accept in perpetuity its shrunken postwar borders? Would it continue to abjure nuclear weapons?
Americans assume that West Germany is a Western power. But in fact Germany has traditionally seen itself as a Central European power. How it will define itself, with whom it will ally itself, and how it will choose to assert its power are at the heart of the anxiety that attends the German question.
The answer lies in the race between two enormous historical transformations occurring on either side of Germany. To the west is the integration of the European Community, a project that Robert Hormats, former Assistant Secretary of State, correctly calls the greatest voluntary transfer of sovereignty in history. Europe '92, which will establish a single West European market and might lead to a common currency and ultimately some kind of political confederation, is the major force pulling Germany west. With the decline of NATO, the great hope of keeping Germany oriented to the West is to lock it into a web of intimate economic, and ultimately political, relations.
The other great pull is to the east. It comes from the gradual dissolution of the Soviet empire, which will draw Germany into the geopolitical and economic vacuum left behind. Europeans already talk of West Germany, with its proximity, historical ties and vast economic power, developing a minicolonial sphere of influence among its East European neighbors. There is even talk of the French trying quietly to renew prewar ties to the East (in the interwar period France had close ties with Poland and the countries of the Little Entente) as a flanking maneuver to contain any eastern expansion of German influence. Plus ca change.
Europe's future will be determined by the contest between these two sirens calling Germany to its destiny. Which is strong reason for the U.S. to encourage a successful West European integration. True, such a Europe might turn into a protectionist fortress unfriendly to the American economy. But a unified Europe with ties that bind Germany is the best hope for a tranquil post-cold war world. And say what you will about unification, it is an even better national tranquilizer than imperialism.