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Why this massive power shift? Explanations abound. No doubt cultural and demographic changes have eroded mainline churches. Constant organizational reshuffles have taken a toll. In addition, far too many mainline churches are sorely lacking in the marketing and communications savvy that the Evangelicals employ to win new members. In fact, a contingent of prospering evangelical congregations exists within each of the mainline denominations. A preoccupation with political and social issues at the expense of good old- fashioned faith has alienated many members. Not only are the traditional denominations failing to get their message across; they are increasingly unsure just what that message is.
To be sure, the mainline retains sufficient social status to be the spiritual home for half the U.S. Congress, as it has been for most U.S. Presidents. George Bush is a churchgoing Episcopalian, although he communes more naturally with Billy Graham and Jerry Falwell than with his own bishops. Presbyterian convert Dwight Eisenhower testified to the extraordinary mainline influence that existed at midcentury when he journeyed to New York City in 1958 to lay the cornerstone for the headquarters building of the National Council of Churches.
Although it formerly symbolized mainline ascendancy, the N.C.C. is now shaken by a crisis that signals the decline of the religious Old Guard. The organization, which this week is grappling with its internal problems at an all important board meeting in Lexington, Ky., suffers partly from its member denominations' tribulations. For instance, the shrunken Presbyterian staff, just moved from the N.C.C. building in New York City to Louisville, has been cut by 400, in part to ward off a $7 million shortfall. With 49% of active lay Presbyterians heading toward retirement, said a study published last year, future money problems will be "almost beyond belief." Other mainline agencies face a similar fiscal crunch.
Critical shortcomings are evident in virtually every activity concerned with the teaching and spreading of the faith. Examples:
SUNDAY SCHOOL. Enrollments are plummeting even faster than overall membership is. In the past two decades, participation has decreased an average of 55% in the major denominations. Dorothy Bass of the Chicago Theological Seminary blames the decline on mainline failure "to transmit the meaning and excitement of Christianity from one generation to another, one person to another."
HIGHER EDUCATION. A century ago, most U.S. colleges and universities were controlled by mainline Protestantism and constituted the faith's most important channel of cultural influence. But gradually, mainline schools have become indistinguishable from secular campuses, leaving distinctly Protestant higher education to the Evangelicals. This "revolution" occurred with "nobody noticing and nobody seeming to mind," remarks Duke University historian George Marsden.