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The Bush Administration might also do well to downplay the "Noriega must go" mantra. A kidnaping would be imprudent, and the U.S. lacks the means to get rid of Noriega unless it plans to mount an invasion, a move that would prove far too costly. If Washington's Latin allies perceive even a hint of Yanqui aggression in the region, they might rally around Noriega, as happened when the U.S. imposed economic sanctions 14 months ago. Moreover, by one U.S. / military analyst's estimate last year, an invasion, while feasible, could result in the loss of up to 1,000 U.S. military lives, a cost that most Americans would judge too high.
Bush's most sensible option is to continue to enlist Panama's neighbors in the campaign to oust Noriega. Now that Bush has pointedly consulted half a dozen Latin American leaders on his game plan, they will make a mockery of their own calls for "regional solutions to regional problems" if they run off the field and hide. "A lot of countries are coming on board with Milquetoast statements," says a U.S. official. "We need to get Mexico and some of these other fence-sitters to come out publicly and totally isolate Noriega."
Bush would do well to remember that Noriega does not respond constructively to threats. Each time the Reagan Administration rattled a saber, he dug in harder. The most promising effort to negotiate Noriega's departure was engineered last year by Spain and Venezuela, which listened attentively to his demands and appreciated the need for face-saving measures. That attempt was cut short by disagreements over who would handle Noriega's exodus.
Once again, Noriega's minions are putting out the word that he might be willing to step down if the terms of the arrangement are presented to him in the right light. In the meantime, the U.S. can build on the overture Bush made to the Panama Defense Forces last week and pursue a relationship with reformist elements within the ranks. The discontent is there to tap. According to government advisers in Panama City, perhaps half the Panamanians in uniform who went to the polls last week voted against Noriega.
Beyond that, patience may be the soundest tactic. Noriega's intransigence is not the only problem. The Panamanian people, though exercised last week by Noriega's outright contempt for popular opinion, cannot be counted on to remain in the streets. They have mounted sizable protests twice before over the past two years, only to retreat back into their comfortable homes. "What we need here is 20 good Korean students," a U.S. official wryly notes. "The people ((in Panama)) seldom put it on the line." Frustrated as they may be, middle-class Panamanians have not suffered the misery that galvanized Filipinos and Haitians. And Noriega is no Marcos or Duvalier: he is wilier, stronger -- and more bloodthirsty.
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