If the nations of the world take immediate action, the destruction of the global environment can be slowed substantially. But some irreversible damage is inevitable. Even if fossil-fuel emissions are cut drastically, the overall level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will still increase -- along with the likelihood of some global warming. Even if toxic dumping is banned outright and that ban is strictly enforced, some lakes and aquifers will be tainted by poisons that have already been released. Even if global population growth could somehow be cut in half, there would still be more than 45 million new mouths to feed next year, putting further strain on a planet whose capacity to sustain life is already under stress.
Sooner or later the earth's human inhabitants, so used to adapting the environment to suit their needs, will be forced to adapt themselves to the environment's demands. When that day comes, how will societies respond? How well will the world cope with the long-term changes that are likely to be in store?
To help answer those questions, political scientist Michael Glantz of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has pioneered the use of a technique known as "forecasting by analogy" to predict the effects on society of future climatic change. In a series of case studies, Glantz and his colleagues analyzed the response of state and local governments to actual environmental events across the U.S., from a 12-ft. rise in the level of Utah's Great Salt Lake to the depletion of the aquifer that supplies groundwater to eight Great Plains states.
When Glantz's forecasting technique is applied to the rest of the world, two things become clear. One is that virtually every long-term environmental change is occurring in miniature somewhere on the planet, whether it is a regional warming trend in sub-Saharan Africa or the vanishing coastline in Louisiana. The other is that Homo sapiens is an immensely resourceful species, with an impressive ability to accommodate sweeping change. In countries and regions hit by climatic upheavals, people have come up with a variety of solutions that are likely to have broad applicability to the global problems of tomorrow.
How would societies respond, for example, if the oceans were to rise by 3 ft. to 5 ft. over the next century, as some scientists have predicted? One option would be to construct levees and dikes. The Netherlands, after all, has flourished more than 12 ft. below sea level for hundreds of years. Its newest bulwark is a 5.6-mile dam made up of 131-ft. steel locks that remain open during normal conditions, to preserve the tidal flow that feeds the rich local sea life, but can be closed when rough weather threatens. Venice is beginning to put into place a 1.2-mile flexible seawall that would protect its treasured landmarks against Adriatic storms without doing ecological damage to the city's lagoon.