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Other forces are at work to keep toymakers busy for years to come. There is first the baby boomlet, which started in 1976. While not as important as the postwar baby boom, it has produced a new generation of toy customers. Says Carol Blackley, an official with Fisher-Price: "The important thing to track is first births. Parents generally spend more for their firstborn. More toys are passed down to the second and third child." By the middle of the '90s, the number of children from infant to age nine is expected to increase by 12.3%. To the toy marketeers, that translates into more than 4 million new consumers. Industry officials think the baby boomlet will mean solid non-Christmas sales as well. Says Stephen Hassenfeld, 42, chairman of Hasbro Bradley: "Business is pulsing. Not only for today, but for tomorrow."
Then there is the divorce rate. Industry people point out that divorced parents, especially affluent ones, tend to shower gifts on their offspring throughout the year but really pull out the stops at Christmas. Mommy and Daddy living apart may buy twice as many gifts for their children. When one or both of the divorced spouses remarrys, more gifts flow.
Toy executives know that children's tastes could again change, just as they did with video games. This year's conquering robots could be unwanted tomorrow. But that is the business. Says Tom West, marketing manager of Ceji-Revell of Venice, Calif.: "There's a robot market now, but will there be one in a few years? You buy heavy, go for the gold, get in while it's lot. These frenzies overdo themselves, then peter out." For now that has yet to happen. Grandparents can try to give Erector Sets or electric trains, but most children around the tree this year will be transforming GoBots, hugging Care Bears or casting spells with Masters of the Universe.
—By John S. DeMott. Reported by Rosemary Byrnes/New York, with other bureaus