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The Reagan Administration certainly does not expect any major changes to come from Andropov soon. Said a senior State Department analyst last week: "We will probably see more of the same, a militant peace offensive, continued arms buildup at home and sidling up to China." Still, most U.S. analysts admit that they do not really know much about Andropov's views or, indeed, whether he possesses the power to carry out new ideas.
In spite of Andropov's dramatic display of authority and self-assurance during his first week in office, many Sovietologists still doubted that he was as firmly entrenched as he seemed. Said a French government analyst: "If he has won the first round, he has not necessarily won the second. Though it is incontestable that Andropov seems to have things well in hand so far, there could be other rounds, especially in the realm of domestic policy. If he tries any reforms that are too threatening to the party bureaucracy, there could be a counterattack." One top U.S. Sovietologist believes that Andropov's appointment to the job of party chief, because it was announced only two days after Brezhnev's death, must have been the result of a deal made within the Politburo alone. Says he: "The real views of the Central Committee and the rest of the party bureaucracy are still unclear."
According to Cornell University's Myron Rush, a specialist on how the Soviet Union changes its leaders, Andropov's position in the Politburo remains vulnerable. Says Rush: "It will take six months to a year for Andropov to prevail over supporters of [his rival] Konstantin Chernenko—if he makes it at all. In spite of the fact that Andropov has initially prevailed in the Politburo, he cannot maintain control without placing his own partisans in the Politburo and building a following among other top party officials." Rush notes that, unlike Chernenko, who was apparently Brezhnev's choice, Andropov does not have a network of proteges in the party organization.
In Italy, a source close to the Prime Minister said that the biggest change Andropov can bring to the Kremlin is one of personality and style. Says he: "That is not enough to make a great deal of difference. The policymaking machinery of the Kremlin is so laborious, so heavy, that one man's personality can make little difference—at least until Andropov has clearly consolidated his power. As of now, he is not supreme in the Politburo, and it may take many months for him to be sure enough of himself to take decisive action."
The conservative government of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher adopted an attitude that was, if anything, more cautious than that of the Reagan Administration. Said Thatcher in an address at the Guildhall in London: "In the weeks and months ahead we shall watch the new Soviet leadership earnestly for solid evidence of a willingness to work for genuine multilateral disarmament... But I cannot forget that over the past years, where the Soviet Union has advanced, it has done so not by the force of ideas but by force pure and simple."