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Some of this talk clearly is exaggerated. The chances of a Jackson third-party candidacy are close to zero. Jackson, whose political shrewdness matches his evangelical fervor, realizes that an independent bid is the one thing that could damage his hero status in the black community, since it would help re-elect the Republican President many of his followers are passionately eager to defeat. In a speech last week to a nearly all-black crowd of 3,000 greeting him at a railroad station in Philadelphia, Jackson seemed to be preparing his followers for a unified effort against Reagan in the fall by stressing that their votes should not go exclusively to black candidates. Said Jackson: "When blacks vote in great numbers, our progressive white allies can win. Peace candidates can win. Latinos can win."
In an interview with TIME aboard his charter plane flying from Pittsburgh to Madison, Wis., during which he came close to falling asleep from exhaustion, Jackson insisted that he had just two "litmus-test" demands for Mondale or Hart to meet hi return for his support. They are a "peace" plank and a solid commitment to end the runoff-primary system that, in his view, blocks the election of many more black candidates to federal and state office. Neither demand, however, would be easy for the eventual Democratic nominee to meet. "Peace" in Jackson's terms includes his demand for an outright cut of at least 20% in military spending, which seems unrealistic to the point of political suicide. And runoff primaries are fiercely defended by many Southern whites whose votes would also be crucial in a campaign against Reagan.
How tough a bargain Jackson might be able to strike, of course, depends in large part on how crucial the bloc of delegates he brings to San Francisco turns out to be in deciding the nomination. Going into this week's Pennsylvania primary, that bloc stood at 147 and it is sure to grow. Jackson is not campaigning in every state; indeed, he was talking last week of taking a brief vacation in the Caribbean after the Pennsylvania primary, a luxury neither Mondale nor Hart would dare contemplate. Nonetheless, by convention tune Jackson has high hopes of adding many more delegates from such states as Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio and California, each of which has a potential black vote estimated at 10% or higher.
In a closely divided convention, the Jackson bloc could become the target of a bidding war between candidates unable to amass the 1,967 votes needed for the nomination. But it is also possible that Mondale—less likely, Hart—could come into the convention with enough strength to win the prize no matter how the Jackson delegates voted. Even in such a case, though Jackson's bargaining power would be reduced, it would be far from eliminated. For the eventual nominee, the difference between defeat and victory in November's balloting could hinge on whether Jackson gave him a half-hearted endorsement or enlisted in his behalf the full fervor Jackson has inspired in the black community.