After Mandate bowls over Illinois, Hart needs a win in New York
In The Godfather, it was the severed head of a horse placed at the foot of the bed. In Treasure Island, it was a black spot pressed in the palm of the hand. In the 1984 Democratic primary campaign, the ultimate jinx has been the title front runner, bestowed by the evening news.
So when CBS Anchorman Dan Rather cheerfully said to Walter Mondale, after the former Vice President had defeated Gary Hart by 41% to 35% in the Illinois primary last week, "Congratulations. I suppose now you're the front runner again," Mondale recoiled in horror. "No, no," he spluttered. "The debate has just begun ... We've got a long fight to go ahead of us here."
Whether he likes it or not, Mondale is once again the candidate to beat. Unlike previous favorites who fell apart after New Hampshire upsets, Mondale has struggled back on top. Illinois was a solid win for him. Labor rallied, the blue-collar workers and old folks turned out, the regular Democrats followed the endorsements of party leaders. Mondale even reached into the Chicago suburbs to win a large share of Hart's Yumpie (young upwardly mobile professional) vote. It went pretty much according to the pundits' script—at least as it was written before New Hampshire, when the Mondale campaign was still a "juggernaut" and Hart a "dark horse."
But Mondale's caution is justified. He cannot really hope to re-emerge as the clear favorite to take the nomination unless he wins the New York primary next week. In many ways New York poses the purest test to date. Mondale is no longer burdened by his aura of inevitability, and Hart is no longer a novelty item. Voters should be less swayed by ephemera.
With a total of 285 delegates (172 to be chosen next week), the Empire State is the biggest prize yet, and the second biggest (after California) in the race for the nomination. Although Hart and Mondale have split the primaries, Mondale has fared far better in the caucuses, winning almost twice as many delegates. A victory in New York would not only widen that gap, but would show that Mondale can pull in the popular vote. Says a top official of the Democratic National Committee: "If Hart loses New York, he has to win virtually everything else the rest of the way. Mondale is trying for the K.O., and he may score one." Concedes a Hart aide: "You can explain away Illinois and Michigan, but if the message can't be sold in New York, it probably won't sell overall."
As a hunting ground for Mondale, New York is like Illinois, only more so. "It is more Democratic—with a big D—more ethnic, more elderly, more unionized than Illinois," says Tim Russert, counselor to New York Governor Mario Cuomo. Says a Mondale campaign official: "New Yorkers are tougher, more cynical and not as taken by the idea of newness. Plus Hart's newness has been out there a while." New York City Mayor Ed Koch backs Mondale, as do Cuomo and 55 of 62 county chairmen. Unlike Illinois, New York does not allow independents and Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary, thus stripping Hart of his ability to reach outside the party. Says Hart's national cochairman, Theodore Sorensen: "It's tough. The entire Establishment is against us."