(5 of 5)
As always, the most uncertain factor in Polish affairs was the Soviet Union. Radio Moscow was quick to denounce the Reagan speech as "a show of impotent wrath," and on Christmas Day Pravda published a 4,000-word article that blamed the troubles in Poland on U.S. intelligence agencies. The international support Solidarity has received over the past 17 months, it alleged, was all part of a plot "to undermine the socialist statehood and to create conditions for a counterrevolutionary coup." For the most part, however, the Soviets have been exceedingly cautious in their comments about Poland, in part because of a sort of ideological refusal to admit that 10 million Polish workers could revolt against a workers' state. But they have repeatedly protested their innocence in connection with the Polish crackdown. A Soviet official told TIME Moscow Bureau Chief Erik Amfitheatrof: "We had nothing to do with it. But of course the truth doesn't suit your President. He is using Poland to try to harm the Soviet Union. Under Carter it was human rights; under Reagan it is Poland." Asked what he considered to be the most important Soviet aim regarding Poland, he replied, "The preservation of its political system."
If such comments mean that Poland's period of repression will not be prolonged, there may be some reason for hope. But the martial-law declaration has unleashed forces of resistance that may be beyond the government's power to control. The danger is that the crackdown will lead to more and more repression, and that the armed forces will have increasing difficulty keeping a rebellious population in check. The country is bankrupt; food is in short supply. Some people are on strike; others show up for work but merely go through the motions. At best, Poland faces a long period of economic privation, which in turn could cause greater unrest. At worst, the rising pressure could lead to civil war and Soviet intervention. In his Thursday night speech, General Jaruzelski did not talk about the future, except to say that the only road open to Poland was "socialist democratization"—in other words, a return to a system with which the Soviet Union feels comfortable. —By William E. Smith. Reported by Richard Hornik/Warsaw and Frank Melville/ London