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Administration officials believe the Soviets could even return to the nuclear bargaining table within a few months. Moscow has a military interest in curtailing the NATO deployment, which is sched uled to proceed gradually over the next five years. There is also the importance to the Soviets of continuing to portray themselves as peacemakers in their ongoing bid to split the NATO allies.
Finally, U.S. officials feel that the Soviets are pragmatic enough to see that Reagan stands a good chance of being re-elected next year. On that assumption, Moscow would figure that it can get a better arms-control deal from a President in the midst of a campaign than from one who has been returned to office. One possibility: folding the talks on European missiles into the ongoing Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) that are taking place in Geneva. The distinction between intermediate-range and strategic missiles has always been somewhat artificial, and merging the two sets of negotiations might offer new possibilities for concessionary tradeoffs.
U.S. officials acknowledge that West European public opinion might force the U.S. to accept such a merger, but they would prefer to avoid it on the grounds that the START talks are complicated enough.
A number of other negative factors could keep the superpowers at arm's length.
The most important is the overall climate of U.S.-Soviet relations, which has reached poisonous intensity. Another is the uncertainty, thanks to elections and illness, about leadership on both sides, but most particularly in Moscow.
A further reason for pessimism is the stagnation of almost all nuclear arms-control efforts. The Geneva START talks have made no progress to speak of in the 17 months since they began. The unratified SALT n treaty of 1979, which both sides have agreed to comply with informally, is eroding with every passing month as each side accuses the other of activities that violate the understanding. Meanwhile, new weapons systems under development by both sides are becoming harder and harder to deal with under arms-control proposals. One crucial new area that must be dealt with soon: an effort to limit the use of weapons in space.
In the short term, the two most likely effects of last week's events are that the number of missiles in Europe will grow substantially and that demonstrations against them will continue. West Germany's pacifists have already called for a huge antinuclear protest to take place on Dec. 12. But there was an important positive consequence: the oft-fragmented Atlantic Alliance had, contrary to many predictions, responded to its most stringent test in more than 25 years by affirming rather than weakening its resolve. —By George Russell. Reported by Roland Flamini and Gary Lee/ Bonn and Strobe Talbott/Geneva
-The film will be shown in West German theaters beginning Dec. 2, and later in at least eight other West European countries.