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Grandiose may be an understatement. The enterprise involves two separate sets of river diversions. On the European side of the Urals, the volume of the Volga would be increased by funneling into it the flow of three major northern rivers, the Onega, the Northern Dvina and the Pechora. Officially sanctioned by President Leonid Brezhnev in his speech on agricultural goals two weeks ago, the European grand scheme is scheduled to be launched next year. The rerouting would require the building of 25 dams and numerous pumping stations. As the barriers go up, they would raise river levels a section at a time, until the water no longer reached the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. The builders would also erect colossal dikes across the mouths of the rivers, creating great fresh-water bays. The first northern water should begin flowing southward into the Volga through a network of canals and reservoirs by the late 1980s.
The Asian portion is no less ambitious, involving the rechanneling of Siberia's mighty Ob River and its major tributary, the Irtysh. The original idea was to carry the water south by building a canal some 1,500 miles long, perhaps by nuclear blasting. But that proposal drew so many objections in the West that Soviet planners are now talking of rerouting the water along old riverbeds revealed by satellite photographs.
Backers of the river reversals are convinced that the great investment—at least $40 billion in the early stages alone—would pay off handsomely. They predict grain production would be boosted by as much as 30 million to 60 million metric tons a year—equivalent to 18% to 35% of the U.S.S.R.'s current crop. They also point out that the northern waters would revitalize two major inland seas, the Caspian and the Aral, whose levels have been dropping rapidly because of irrigation needs.
The enthusiasm of the planners has not allayed widespread fears. The project's opponents say it would wipe out great expanses of forest lands and close off such historic ports as Arkhangelsk. In addition, the diversions would flood northern agricultural lands, temporarily halt river traffic and, by denying salmon and other river-breeding species their fresh-water spawning grounds, wreck flourishing fisheries. Severe problems may also come from the thick ice expected to remain well past winter in the new reservoirs. By retarding the spring thaw, the freeze-up could cut the already brief northern growing season by two weeks. The prolonged winter weather might also increase spring winds and reduce vital rains.
More disturbing, some scientists have cautioned that if the Arctic Ocean is not replenished by fresh water, it will get salt ier, its freezing point will drop, and the icecap will begin to melt, possibly starting a global warming trend. Other scientists fear that just the opposite may occur: as the flow of warmer fresh water is reduced, the polar ice may expand. In any case, British Climatologist Michael Kelly of the University of East Anglia sees an ironic consequence: changes in polar winds and currents might reduce rainfall in the very regions to benefit from the river.
—By Frederic Golden.
Reported by Erik Amfitheatrof/Moscow