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Southern crowds are generally receptive to a strongly conservative appeal, and the friendly reaction makes Reagan loosen up. On his brief Southern swing just before the close of the New Hampshire campaign, more than 2,500 young people jammed into the auditorium of Samford University in Birmingham and applauded even his most prosaic remarks. Reagan responded with some notably loose oratory. He repeated his opposition to registration for the draft—a position that only Ted Kennedy shares among the active candidates—and then added, in reference to the possible registration of women: "There's something inherent in the draft that suggests combat. I don't want to be part of any society that puts women into combat." That was something of a cheap shot at Jimmy Carter, who has also said that he would never permit the use of women hi combat. Bush takes the same line, and less articulately. In one of his recent speeches he came out against "mixed sex in foxholes."
Atring of Southern victories for Reagan would surprise no one, which brings the campaign to Illinois. If one of Reagan's rivals does not manage to beat Reagan there, his momentum could become unstoppable. In Illinois, as elsewhere, Reagan is benefiting from the fact that the vote opposing him is split up among a number of candidates. On the other hand, a Reagan defeat in Illinois—especially if it followed an unexpected loss in one or two of the Southern states—would probably lead to a hard race right up to the convention. Baker told supporters last week he would concentrate his efforts on making a comeback in Illinois, and Bush will be campaigning hard there too. As of now, all predictions are for a close contest. Says Don Totten, Reagan's Illinois chairman: "With the swings in the polls and the fickleness of the voters, it is hard to tell what is going to happen next."
However Reagan does in Illinois or the South, his triumph in New Hampshire virtually guarantees one thing. It is possible now to visualize any of his rivals being defeated so badly in the next few weeks as to be forced out of the race. It is no longer possible to foresee such a fate for Reagan. He may lose, but he will almost certainly be a strong contender to the end. His biggest problem may be that the very hardline conservative positions that appeal to the enthusiasts who vote in G.O.P. primaries are exactly those that might not attract the much larger body of people who will vote in November.
* The breakdown: Bush, 23%; Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, 13%; Illinois Liberal Representative John Anderson, 10%; former Texas Governor John Connally and Illinois Representative Philip Crane, 2% each. Kansas Senator Robert Dole, the vice-presidential nominee just four years ago, received exactly 607 votes, less than half of 1%.
* Some other members: Henry Kissinger and two other members of the Nixon Cabinet, Peter Peterson and Caspar Weinberger; two Nixon appointees to the Council of Economic Advisers, Paul McCracken and Marina Whitman; Banker David Rockefeller.