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Assad. "In the short term," says a Western diplomat, "there is no hope for a non-Alawite breakthrough." Yet were his older brother no longer in control, Rifaat might find it politic to install as a figurehead President a Sunni from the country's inner circle, someone whose name is less sullied than his own. A likely beneficiary of such a ploy might be Major General Mustafa Tlas, the Defense Minister and a harsh critic of the U.S., who has been hailed by Soviet Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov as "the greatest strategist in the Middle East." Another Sunni front runner is Chief of Staff Hikmat Shehabi, an ambitious, somewhat colorless soldier who was made Syria's official contact with the U.S. diplomatic mission in Damascus ten years ago. During a transition period, a third Sunni might also prove influential: the abrasive, crisply competent Abdel Halim Khaddam, Foreign Minister for more than ten years.
No matter who emerges as a potential successor to Hafez Assad, the regime's reputation for ruthlessness is Likely to remain intact. Says Amiram Nir, a scholar at Tel Aviv University's Center for Strategic Studies: "The hands of all the caste members [the inner circle] are duty. They all share personal involvement in 'counter revolutionary' bloodbaths." The road to power is therefore sure to be treacherous. Almost three years ago, when Major General Naji Jamil, commander of the air force, managed to ingratiate himself with Hafez Assad, Rifaat interceded forcefully. Jamil was stripped of his power and confined to his house, where he is kept under surveillance to this day.