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In addition, the R.D.F. units that could be dispatched to the Middle East are also earmarked to reinforce NATO during a European crisis. European allies would surely howl that they could not be spared, since a Middle East war might spill over into Europe. Former Secretary of Defense Harold Brown warns that even in relatively minor trouble areas like Lebanon, prolonged deployments "are manageable over a period of months—but if they go on for a year or more, they could reduce our ability to deal with a major contingency."
It is not easy to see what might be done. Commitments could be lightened, but which friendly states should be told the U.S. might not defend them? Military forces could be built up further; the U.S. may even need the draft. But Reagan is having trouble getting his present defense-spending requests through Congress (he asked for a 14.2% increase over fiscal 1983). Perhaps the most comforting thought is that the Soviet Union, faced by a hostile China on one flank and ringed by potentially mutinous East European allies on another, has its own worries about how much military force it could safely commit to any bloody, prolonged foreign adventure.
—By George J. Church.
Reported by Bruce W. Nelan/Washington