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The Chinese have consistently opposed U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan as an interference in their internal affairs. In the 1978 agreement that normalized relations between the two countries, the U.S. accepted Peking's position that there is only one China, that Taiwan is a part of it, and that the country's sole legitimate government is the one in Peking. Selling advanced weapons to Taiwan, opponents argue, would undermine the pro-Western initiatives launched by China's Senior Vice Chairman Deng Xiaoping, cause the Chinese to downgrade relations with the U.S. and push Peking back into a closer relationship with the Soviets. But Taiwan's supporters point out that the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 requires the U.S. to supply Taipei's government with "sufficient" weapons for its own defense. During the presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan argued that by appearing to abandon old friends under pressure, the U.S. would undermine the value of all its commitments.
China's discomfort over arms sales to Taiwan, including the decision last month to ship $97 million worth of spare parts for older fighter jets to the island, has been reflected not only in its silence over Poland, but also in the increased anti-American rhetoric emerging from Peking. A commentary by the New China News Agency last month accused the Americans of being similar to the Soviets in pursuing "hegemony," a derogatory code word for expansionism. An editorial two weeks ago in Peking's Peoples ' Daily suggested, however, that there might be a way to work out a compromise if the U.S. acknowledged that arms sales to Taiwan are an infringement on China's sovereignty. "Once this principle is established and recognized, the two sides may negotiate ways and means of settling this issue," the paper said. Peking has hinted that it might allow some sales if an eventual date is set for ending the flow of arms. State Department officials have privately approached their Chinese counterparts in Washington and Peking to talk about such a plan, which may be discussed during the Holdridge-Blackwill mission this week. A cutoff of arms to the island would violate the Taiwan Relations Act and would be unacceptable to Reagan and to Taiwan's conservative supporters in Congress.
Should the U.S. try to pursue a trade off with Peking, there is little Taiwan can do but reluctantly acquiesce. The real question is whether Peking will accept the notion that American sales of F-5Es to Taiwan is an example of moderation that should be rewarded rather than rebuked. Many observers think that is unlikely, and the Chinese leadership will undoubtedly respond to any arms sales to Taiwan with sharp words about the violation of its national sovereignty. But whether they take action beyond the rhetoric depends on the priorities of the Peking power structure, which finds itself, like the Reagan Administration, caught in a welter of conflicting concerns. Although China expelled The Netherlands' ambassador when that country sold submarines to Taiwan last year, many American Sinologists believe that Deng and his pragmatic allies would be reluctant to admit the failure of their pro-Western approach by significantly downgrading relations with the U.S. — By Walter Isaacson. Reported by Richard Bernstein/Peking and Douglas Brew/Washington