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O'Neill had a reason to be grumpy.
Not only had Reagan jumped back into the budget fight with surprising strength, but the Speaker had lost face within his own party by virtually conceding that the Democrats had no chance to stop Reagan's "velvet steamroller." It was a bad blunder by the old pro. O'Neill had spent the Easter recess in Australia and New Zealand rather than drumming up support for the Democratic alternative. Criticized by his colleagues for that junket, he then threw in the towel before making any kind of head count or sounding out the sentiment of other Democrats.
Actually, head counters in both the White House and the House saw the vote as so close that either side could win, although Reagan had regained momentum.
By one estimate, about 30 Democrats might possibly bolt their party, while six Republicans might jump to the other side.
If so, the Democrats would have 217 votes —a paper-thin majority.
A debate opened on the House floor, the Democratic strategy was clear:
1) to zero in on the budget deficits and the three-year Kemp-Roth tax program as grave weaknesses in the Reagan-backed substitute, and 2) to insist House members would betray a public trust if they vote for the Reagan budget cuts now, but vote against his tax plan later. Republicans, on the other hand, rallied around the argument that the Democratic resolution amounts to a surrender to special interests. Argued Latta: "We can't keep saying yes, yes, yes to the groups saying give us more, more, more."
As it happened, one special interest group—the farmers—was doing its best to undercut the President's program last week. The Republican-controlled Senate Agriculture Committee lavishly boosted dairy supports $1.4 billion above Reagan's recommendation for the next four years and then, on top of Reagan's removing the Soviet grain embargo, the committee increased corn and grain subsidies by some $4 billion for the same period.
Buoyed by the reception of his speech, the President continued to apply his special brand of polite pressure. He invited twelve uncertain Republicans, all Middle West or Northeast moderates, to the White House for low-key, one-on-one chats. He began to treat conservative Democrats to similar White House group-therapy sessions that will run right up to the eve of the vote. At a meeting with 25 top Republicans, Reagan emphasized that he considered his leadership prestige to be at stake in this week's House vote. For Republicans, Ronald Reagan's personal popularity looked like the best weapon they have in the battle of the budget. —By Ed Magnuson.
Reported by Neil MacNeil and Johanna McGeary/Washington