THE PHILIPPINES: Powder Keg of the Pacific

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When Marcos pre-empted his country's constitution by proclaiming martial law on Sept. 21, 1972, Washington gave its tacit approval. At the time, an unstable democracy was drifting toward anarchy. Marcos' decision to suspend the legislature, arrest many of his opponents, muzzle the press, and otherwise impose his own autocratic rule, seemed a harsh but necessary step to save the country from political and economic turmoil. Recalls a leading member of the Nixon Administration: "We could see that the country was going to hell in a handbasket, and we saw Marcos as the ablest man in the country and wished him luck in trying to get a grip on the situation."

Even the opponents of Marcos conceded that he scored some impressive initial accomplishments with a full-scale counterinsurgency offensive, a vigorous campaign against the twin evils of street violence and official corruption, and a headlong development boom aimed at reducing economic inequality. Despite the fading dream of a grandiose "New Society" that he originally promised his countrymen, Marcos still has the reluctant support of many middle-class Filipinos, who see no attractive alternative to his rule. One of the most respected businessmen in Manila, Economic Consultant Washington Sycip, acknowledges the multiplying problems and abuses but argues that the country's current predicament still compares favorably with the violence, political paralysis and economic stagnation of the pre-martial law era. He also plays down widespread reports that capital is fleeing abroad. "We don't see any case yet of major multinationals selling their companies because of lack of confidence in the country."

Growing numbers of other Filipinos, however, are no longer wilting to give Marcos the benefit of any doubt. Reason: the average citizen is being squeezed as never before. A slump in the world price of sugar, which is the mainstay of Philippine exports, higher oil costs and looming general recession have aggravated every painful symptom of the ailing economy. Inflation is expected to exceed 30% this year, and many families must spend 70% to 80% of their total income just on food. "If that goes much higher in the next year," says one worried diplomat, "anything could happen."

For millions, their country's poverty means hunger and starvation. Government surveys show that serious malnutrition affects 30% of all Filipino children and as many as 80% in the poorest provinces. Marcos1 ambitious wife Imelda, 50, who serves as a kind of velvet glove to his iron hand, has made the fight against hunger one of her well-publicized projects. At her ultramodern Nutrition Center of the Philippines in Manila, visitors are shown an elaborate audiovisual presentation of current schemes: "Nutribuses," "Nutrinoodles" and "Nutripaks" of dried food in cellophane envelopes supposedly distributed to the poor. In fact. Mrs. Marcos' programs affect only a small minority of the hungry.

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