Iran: The Test of Wills

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the Shah's character and what his monarchy brought to Iran can never be resolved to the satisfaction of all parties. But many diplomats throughout the world would agree that, as a starting point in settling the current crisis, it would be fortunate if the Shah should proceed to Mexico or some other third country to continue his treatment and recuperation. Alternatively, suggests one prominent American expert on the Middle East, the Shah could help by renouncing, once and for all, his family's claim to the Peacock Throne. This expert believes the Shah might well be willing to make such a sacrifice as the price of staying in the U.S.

If the embassy crisis can be resolved and the hostages are uninjured, it is still possible that the U.S. and Iran could restore limited relations. The present Iranian government wants to sell the 77 U.S.-built F-14 jet fighters that the Shah bought for his air force. Contractual restrictions would prevent Iran from selling the planes to the Soviet Union, but it is likely that Iran could find a customer acceptable to the U.S. One possibility: Saudi Arabia. The sale of military spare parts could begin again. The U.S. still sells wheat and rice to Iran, and in time the sale of Iranian oil to the U.S. might be also resumed.

If the crisis ends badly and any of the hostages are harmed, however, the U.S. will face a far more serious problem. Though the Administration has ruled out military intervention during the current impasse (there were naval exercises in the Persian Gulf last week, however), it might change its mind in the event of American casualties at the embassy. The Pentagon has advised that air raids, launched from carriers, could put the Iranian oilfields out of action for six months with a minimum of civilian injuries, but there has been no suggestion from any quarter that this would be a good course to follow. The resulting oil shortage would hurt U.S. allies more than it would hurt Iran—and would drive world oil prices through the roof. Another possibility would be a Government embargo on all trade with Iran, including food, but Carter would use the food weapon only as a last resort. Summarizing the planning difficulties, an Administration official noted last week: "The difference between minimum and maximum punishment is not all that great. This is very tough to calibrate."

What worries many governments at the moment, apart from the impasse at the American embassy, is that Iran appears to be slipping ever closer to chaos.

Using Khomeini as a cover, extremists of the left are trying to reinforce their position, thereby setting the scene for possible civil war. The Ayatullah Khomeini, old and ailing, does not understand modern statecraft, diplomacy or administration. Jimmy Carter does not know how to deal with him; neither does anybody else. Says a European diplomat: "What can you do when faced with a mad geriatric case?" Yet this remarkable old man, and he alone, seems to possess the power to preserve his volatile country from total anarchy—and to free the rest of the American hostages in Tehran.

*;One intrepid entrepreneur, Joe Conforte, who runs the Mustang Ranch, a legalized bordello outside Reno, took advantage of the uproar to post a sign at his gates saying: "No more Iranian students will be permitted on these premises until the hostages are