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With the Cubans and South Africans both so actively engaged, one Western intelligence source argued that "the war is increasingly out of the hands of the locals." UNITA commanders at Cela reported that "there are virtually no African faces in the enemy ranks." Soviet arms, including shipments of 122-mm. multiple rocket launchers, T-34 assault tanks and helicopter gunships, were largely responsible for the Cuban-led M.P.L.A.'s advances. Meanwhile, reinforcements continue to arrive on daily flights from Havana. There are an estimated 10,000 Cuban troops now in Angola; at the rate they are arriving, there could be 14,000 by next month.
South African assistance to UNITA is on a much smaller scale. There are perhaps 1,000 regular South African soldiers near the fighting fronts and 2,000 to 3,000 further back, based at Sá da Bandeira or near the Cunene River. Nonetheless, their involvement in the civil war is crucial to UNITA's survival. The South Africans man the heavy equipment—principally Panhard armored cars, 130-mm. artillery pieces and Puma helicopters—that provides UNITA with mobility and firepower.
Last week the South African Cabinet met twice in preparation for the opening of Parliament, where some lively debate on the Angolan intervention was expected. Some South African government leaders favor a unilateral pullback. They worry that their involvement in an uphill struggle will destroy the fragile détente the country has achieved with some black African states and severely drain the economy. Others argue that the prospect of an outright M.P.L.A. victory in Angola, and the presence of militantly anti-South African Cubans in the country, requires an uncompromising stand. Though Pretoria has announced the biggest reserve call-up since World War II, State President Nicolaas Didderichs told Parliament at week's end that armed force can bring no lasting solution in Angola, leading to speculation that South Africa might make a partial troop withdrawal.
Military Stalemate. Some South Africans hope that with their help, UNITA can hold the M.P.L.A. to a military stalemate. That in turn might induce M.P.L.A. Leader Agostinho Neto to accept a power-sharing agreement with Savimbi, who is solidly backed by the Ovimbundu, Angola's largest tribal group. In that case, Pretoria could offer to withdraw its forces on condition that the Cubans and Soviets do the same.
Such a deal would probably have the support of moderate leaders like Zambia's Kenneth Kaunda and perhaps even Zaïre's Mobutu, who are worried that an outright M.P.L.A. victory would give the Soviet Union too much influence in Angola and the rest of central Africa. A compromise would also, of course, spare the country more violence and bloodshed. At week's end some estimates of the death toll in the civil war had risen to as high as 100,000—a devastatingly large figure for a country with only 5.5 million people.