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Pan Am and T.W.A. have been granted permission by the CAB to begin "operation talks" that could produce a merger of some services. For example, Pan Am might take over the New York-Frankfurt route, while T.W.A. assumed exclusive service on the New York-Paris run. That would help solve both lines' problems of too many empty seats, but not before this fall. Both have fully committed their available transatlantic capacity through the summer months. Pan Am also hopes that the CAB will quickly approve its application to begin its first-ever totally domestic flights between Los Angeles and New York, which might bring in a badly needed $18 million a year in additional revenues.
The Nixon Administration has responded sympathetically to Pan Am's plight. "We are giving this a high priority," says Transportation Secretary Claude S. Brinegar. The CAB is expected to grant a 5% to 10% increase in transatlantic fares by summer's end, but whether Pan Am will get the $194 million in fuel subsidies it seeks is less certain. Brinegar believes that such payments "would come only as a last resort." In an election year Congress may be extremely reluctant to dole out tax dollars to the airlines.
Other uncertainties linger about the air crashes that have marred Pan Am's previously excellent safety record. During the past ten months, four Pan Am 707s have crashed, killing a total of 290 passengers and crew members. After a Pan Am jetliner rammed into a mountaintop in Bali, killing 107 last month, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered a worldwide probe of Pan Am operations; that study will be completed next month. Meanwhile, an in-house study by Pan Am has found no fault with the company's procedures or operations, but has identified the lack of functioning radar in many foreign control towers as a possible factor in the accidents. Last week Pan Am ordered for all 140 of its planes a new cockpit-warning system that will flash a red "terrain" light, emit an ambulance-like warbling siren noise, and sound a recorded voice shrieking "Pull up!" whenever a plane is flying dangerously low in approaching a mountain peak or a runway.
Unfortunately, there is no device that can tell Pan Am how to pull up from its financial predicament. If the Government aid that the airline is seeking does not materialize, Seawell believes that Pan Am will have no choice but to merge with a domestic airline. To the question "Can Pan Am survive?" then, the answer is: probably it can, but as a merged or subsidized carrier rather than in its present form.