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Economically, the Saudis have decided to diversify by starting oil-based export industries. They are looking into petrochemical development and considering an advanced feasibility study for what would be one of the world's largest steel plants, with an initial capacity of 1,000,000 tons annually. The oil wealth is also trickling out among the people; the average worker's annual wage is about $ 1,500, triple that of a decade ago, and the government has sizable desert irrigation and reclamation projects under way to provide jobs and grazing land for Bedouin nomads, who make up about 20% of the population. The cities are bristling with construction cranes, and new Ferraris glisten in showroom windows.
The King is reluctant to push growth or social change too rapidly for fear of overinflating the economy and upsetting old social patterns. Many Western experts believe that he is too cautious. Says an American diplomat who served in Saudi Arabia: "Feisal is moving in the right way, but he needs to move a lot faster. He has to get the country off its duff." But Feisal insists that gradualism is best. "Revolutions can come from thrones as well as from conspirators' cellars," he has said. "We need everything in this country, but stability is the first priority. We are starting at the bottom, and we have to build slowly. We cannot make miracles overnight."
That caution may become a problem for Saudi Arabia. A new, small middle class of young, Western-educated technocrats is percolating through the country's businesses and bureaucracies. Before long they may begin demanding that Saudi Arabia move faster toward the modern world, and that they be given a greater voice in determining national policy.
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Another problem will be finding a successor to Feisal. Primogeniture is not mandatory in Saudi Arabia. The royal family in 1965 selected Feisal's half-brother Crown Prince Khalid, now Deputy Prime Minister, to be the next King. But Khalid, 63, is said to be shy and ineffectual; he also has heart disease. When Feisal leaves the scene, some family members may want to reconsider the choice of Khalid. Yet the supremely powerful, 5,000-member Saud family has usually avoided open conflict in the past, and some bargain could be struck. One such arrangement might be to enthrone Khalid, but give the real control to a younger, more dynamic man.
Whoever leads the country in the future will face a vexing question: What should Saudi Arabia's role in the Middle East be? Until recently, Feisal saw the role merely as that of a spiritual unifier for the Islamic world, and Saudi Arabia has stayed mostly on the sidelines of the struggle with Israel. Many other Arabs have tended to dismiss the Saudis as uncivilized and incompetent. But the war has done much to advance Arab unity, and Feisal's agreement to wield the oil weapon has done even more, earning him unprecedented respect and affection among Arabs. If Feisal's oil diplomacy can win the political victories that Arab arms have so far failed to achieve, the Saudi King may become one of the most important leaders in modern Middle Eastern history.