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As is common in Africa, Zambia's opposition parties reflect the country's tribal divisions. The A.N.C., for example, draws most of its strength from the Tonga and Ila tribes of the south. Kapwepwe still has some support among his Bemba tribesmen, many of whom work on the central copper belt. Moreover, Kaunda believes that small opposition parties are vulnerable to subversion by his white enemies in Rhodesia and South Africa. And he is painfully aware that until the Tanzania-Zambia railway is completed by the Chinese in 1975, he will have to transport 80% of Zambia's exports and imports along rail lines that run through Rhodesia, South Africa and the rebellious Portuguese province of Mozambique.
Kaunda remains sufficiently popular to carry most of Zambia's 4,000,000 citizens with him into the Second Republic. He argues that the rights of individuals will be fully protected in the future, and it is true that similar systems elsewhere in Africa often allow a wide measure of dissent within the party. "There is no cause for fear," he said last week. "There can be no basis for believing that power will be abused." Though few Zambians doubted Kaunda's intentions, his words were not altogether reassuring—particularly to those opposition politicians who are detained in Zambian prisons.