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To push the Cordiner program, G.E. plans to enlist the aid of industry to build 25 small package reactor plants costing between $4,000,000 and $4,500,000 for delivery to private utilities beginning next year, and to construct five bigger development reactor plants for $128 million. Of the total, G.E. would put in $7,000,000 for research and development costs. Equally important, G.E. wants other companies, now working on at least a dozen different power reactors, to concentrate on the G.E.-developed boiling-water reactor, which G.E. claims is cheaper and more efficient than any other.* By thus concentrating industrial efforts, Cordiner argues that power competitive with the most expensive fossil fuel could be produced in six years.
Cordiner's plan has plenty of opposition. Says Atomic Energy Commissioner John A. McCone: "In this stage of the art, we cannot say which type reactor is best, or afford to place all our bets on one to the exclusion of the others." This month the AEC will present its own plan to Congress, with "some important additions to ensure the exploitation of several promising processes."
An even bigger objection to Cordiner's plan comes from New Mexico's Democratic Senator Clinton P. Anderson, chairman of the Joint Committee on Atomic
Energy. Says he: "Private firms cannot take the leadership in developing atomic power plants. It is too much of a task. The Government should see atomic power plants through the first two or three generations, and then private industry can take over." Private industry will not do the job quickly enough without Government aid, argues Anderson, because it has little incentive. The U.S. has plenty of oil and coal and water power for years to come, and U.S. conventional power is an average three times cheaper than the most efficient atomic power produced today. But many power-starved countries that have no fossil fuels are ripe for atomic power right now—and the U.S. must be able to supply them if it does not want to lose world leadership in atomic power.
The Gamble. To date, the Cordiner plan has had no takers. But Cordiner is convinced that industry will come around because it has already shown an amazing willingness to spend money on atomic power—more than $250 million since 1954—with no hope of profit for a decade. Eight power reactors have been built, all but G.E.'s subsidized by the Government. Fourteen more will be in operation by 1963—and only one will belong to the AEC. Four will be privately financed at a cost of $250 million, and the remaining ten will be built by private groups with some help from the AEC.
All the companies are risking more than money. They are using widely different reactors, none of which will produce power at commercially competitive costs. Eventually the AEC will decide on the most effective reactor, or reactors, on the basis of performance, and companies that have backed other systems will suffer a severe setback. G.E.'s Cordiner is gambling most of all. No one seriously expects him to get all that he wants—but if he gets only half, G.E. may accumulate so much experience that it will forge far ahead of the rest of the field.