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Says an adviser: "I would assume that the President would get some sort of a blip on his job rating." But the display is by no means all show: visits by NATO foreign ministers and Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens to the U.S. last week produced genuine accommodation between Washington and its major allies. The possibility of some arrangement with an important adversary arose too, as Secretary of State George Shultz took off with no advance fanfare on a journey to Nicaragua, then proceeded on to Galway to brief the President (see WORLD).
Still, cacophonous notes of political strife and financial anxiety keep rumbling amid the harmony. Repeated attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf pose a delicate problem of how to protect Western oil supplies without risking U.S. involvement in the Iran-Iraq war. America's relations with the Soviet Union keep hitting new lows. There are indications that the London summit may not be quite the feast of self-congratulation over economic growth that had been expected. France, Germany and Britain, disturbed by tremors in the American banking system, are voicing renewed criticism of U.S. policies toward budget deficits, interest rates and Third World debt.
Reagan's reply to all these concerns was to strike an attitude of poised calm, even when taking firm action. The President last week invoked his emergency powers to sell Saudi Arabia 400 shoulder-fired Stinger antiaircraft missiles and to provide a fourth aerial tanker, a KC-10, that can refuel Saudi fighters in flight. The moves were intended to help the Saudis protect shipping from Iranian air assault in the Persian Gulf. Kuwait promptly made an unofficial request for Stingers; the U.S. suggested it turn to European suppliers.
Reagan made it clear that he does not believe a real emergency exists in the gulf, at least not yet. He used his extraordinary powers principally to avoid the delay that would have ensued if he had asked Congress to approve the Stinger sale to the Saudis. Noting a respite in the attacks on gulf shipping, the President told foreign TV correspondents, "It appears that, rather than getting worse, the situation has quieted somewhat. So maybe it's going to turn out all right." Washington officials emphasize that the U.S. would be extremely reluctant to use its own air and naval power to protect shipping in the gulf unless 1) Arab states offering the use of bases on their territory publicly request such assistance, and 2) British and French forces cooperate in this defense effort.
In Europe, Reagan will urge his fellow leaders to remind their own citizens that the West is far less dependent now on oil shipments through the Persian Gulf than it was in 1973-74 and 1979, when supplies ran seriously short. His point: the biggest threat to Western economies is not a real shortage of oil but an unjustified surge of panic buying and price boosts.