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Hart's big bonanza may come in California (306 delegates, June 5). Jackson is favored in four largely black districts in Los Angeles and San Francisco, and Mondale looks strong in some urban districts with heavy concentrations of union workers, Hispanics, Jews and the elderly. But Hart has great appeal among California's large Yumpie population, particularly in high-tech Silicon Valley. Californians have a tradition of upsetting front runners; in 1976, for instance, their Governor, Jerry Brown, beat Jimmy Carter by 1.3 million votes. Indeed, California has not voted for the eventual Democratic nominee since it went for George McGovern in 1972.
Mondale hopes to buffer defeat in California with victories that same day in heavily Hispanic New Mexico (23 delegates) and pro-labor West Virginia (35 delegates). The big question on the last Super Tuesday of primary season is New Jersey (107 delegates). The state's large labor, elderly and ethnic populations mirror those of New York and Pennsylvania, where Mondale won big, but unemployment is fairly low (6.8%), and voters have a reputation for backing underdogs in presidential primaries.
Mondale's aides would very much like to collect New Jersey as "insurance." Even so, they insist that Mondale could lose all the remaining contests and still reach the 1,967 mark. Agrees a congressional Democratic leader: "Mondale doesn't really need to win any more to put him over the top." Reason: he should do very well among the 219 "superdelegates" and 39 at-large delegates still to be picked from among party leaders and state officials.
Nevertheless, last week's results showed once again that there is a deep reluctance among Democratic voters to confirm Mondale as the nominee. In Texas, for instance, where Mondale's superb organization won the caucuses, many voters were bitter about the candidate as they left the polls. "Mondale embarrasses me," complained Democrat Russell Glenn of Odessa. "He's got more special interests behind him than west Texas has dirt roads." Said Victoria Crosby of Brownsville: "If Mondale gets the nomination, I'll vote for Reagan." In Ohio, fully one-third of the voters in the Democratic primary told TV network exit pollers the same thing. In North Carolina, the exit polls anticipated a defection rate from Mondale that was even higher: 40%. A yet-to-be-released survey by Atlanta-based Pollster Claibourne Darden indicates that 70% of the voters who went with Hart in nine Southern states would vote for Reagan in November if Mondale wins the nomination.