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Since then, the signals from Moscow have been both sluggish and contradictory, particularly on the sensitive issue of NATO'S scheduled deployment of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Western Europe. On Sept. 28 a statement issued under Andropov's name declared that events had "finally dispelled" any hope for improvement in the U.S. Administration's attitude toward Moscow. The Soviets followed that up with hints that they would walk out of the Geneva talks on limiting the number of intermediate-range missiles in Europe, perhaps as soon as this week. Soviet Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov last week added that the planned NATO deployment "will lead to a very dangerous development," a reference to the possible installation of Soviet missiles in East Germany and Czechoslovakia. Other Kremlin statements, however, have been milder and more forthcoming. Even so, U.S. experts now consider a missile deal with the Soviets to be unlikely. Says Sovietologist Dmitri Simes of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "For that you need a leader who can take chances. We do not have a negotiating partner in the Kremlin."
Almost all of Andropov's other important initiatives seem to have gone into the deepfreeze. On the domestic front, his highly touted campaign against official corruption and his stern attempt to force increases in labor productivity have stalled. Likewise, Soviet overtures to Pakistan over the situation in neighboring Afghanistan and Moscow's tentative bid to improve relations with China have not led to any breakthroughs. Says Arnold Horelick, an analyst at the Rand Corp.: "Only a confident leader could reverse the course that the Soviets are on."
In his first year in office, Andropov has failed to recast the Soviet hierarchy in his image. Only one Andropov protege, Geidar Aliyev, 60, has become a full member of the ruling Politburo since Brezhnev's death. The high visibility of Andropov's former rival Chemenko is another sign of the lingering influence of Brezhnev's old guard. The prospects for the Soviet leadership succession are, in the words of former State Department Counselor Helmut Sonnenfeldt, "even more unclear than usual."
One problem is that no obvious leadership choices present themselves. Among the few young prospects in the Politburo are Agriculture Expert Mikhail Gorbachev, 52, and former Leningrad Party Boss Grigori Romanov, 60. To gain power, they would have to win the support of such gerontocrats as Premier Nikolai Tikhonov, 78, Defense Minister Ustinov, 75, and Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, 74. Soviet experts in Washington speculate that none of the old guard would enjoy submitting to the leadership of the young contenders, whose first likely objective would be to sweep out the oldsters. More probable is the possibility of continued, uncertain rule by Politburo consensus. Says Soviet Expert William Hyland, editor-designate of the prestigious quarterly Foreign Affairs: "My guess is they'll divide up the pie, and there will be a true collective."