Pocket pagers and mobile phones could become ubiquitous
When Claire Grenewald, a Summit, N.J., high school sophomore, made a habit of staying out late with her steady boyfriend, her parents bought her a beeper. Whenever she is 15 minutes past her 11:30 p.m. curfew, her parents dial a telephone number that causes a tiny electronic device stashed in her purse to beep, reminding her that it is time to go home. The elder Grenewalds also take the beeper along on their frequent trips to New York City. Says Susan Grenewald: "The kids can just buzz us if anything important happens. It means we're all in touch as a family."
Like the Grenewalds, more and more Americans are using the air waves to stay in touch. Improved technology and falling prices have made such pagers or beepers cheaper and easier to use. In contrast to the unwieldy $340 versions of a decade ago, 1983 models slide into a pocket and cost less than $100. Manufacturers who once concentrated on serving business clients are now rushing to establish a beachhead in the consumer market.
At the same time, the pent-up demand for mobile telephones is about to explode. Prospective suppliers have been queuing up at the Federal Communications Commission to provide a novel service called cellular radio communication. Cellular systems, in which a city is divided into honeycomb-like cells, each with its own transmitter, get much more use out of a single radio frequency than conventional mobile phones. Cellular technology is such an improvement over existing techniques that it allows an almost limitless expansion in the number of mobile phones in use. It also increases their range and usefulness. Licenses have already been awarded in some of the largest U.S. cities.
These two methods of electronic communication are expected to complement, not compete against, each other. Both beeper and mobile-phone messages are carried on radio frequencies. The companies that operate on those frequencies, known as common carriers, often transmit both kinds of signals. Growing familiarity with cheaper beepers is expected to enhance the demand for mobile phones. Another radio-transmitted telephone service, cordless phones, which only have a range of up to 700 ft., got a boost from the Government last week when the FCC proposed to double the number of frequencies available for use.
Beepers seem destined to become the most popular portable electronic devices since the Sony Walkman. Apart from teenagers, who would just as soon not stay in touch with their parents, the potential market is huge. The Cambridge, Mass., consulting firm of Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates that by 1990, 7 million beepers may be in use, compared with 2.5 million today. By the end of the decade, annual sales could reach $86 million and revenues from fees $2.8 billion.