Diplomacy: Countdown to a Crisis

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Britain dickers with China over the future of Hong Kong

Even for the vague, elliptical world of international diplomacy, it was a desultory summit. After a ritual wiping of hands and sipping of tea, the two leaders spent 2½hours (about half of it in translation) exchanging contrary views and, for all intents and purposes, agreeing only to disagree. Then, in an unfortunate conclusion to the visit, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher left her final meeting in Peking with China's senior leader, Deng Xiaoping, only to stumble face first on the broad stairs. The unintended symbolism of the spill in full view of television cameras was not missed. On her arrival in Hong Kong Sunday, on the last leg of a two-week Asian tour, the Prime Minister faced a barrage of local criticism that she had got off on the wrong foot in the opening round of Sino-British talks over the future of the crown colony.

That future, in the eyes of Hong Kong's 5.5 million nervous residents, has never seemed more in need of clarification. From the luxurious mountaintop mansions of "the peak" to the factory floors of Kowloon, from the shimmering office towers of the business district to the wretched squatter camps near Aberdeen, the consuming topic of conversation nowadays is what exactly will happen to Hong Kong before July 1, 1997. That is the date when more than 90% of Hong Kong's land area, the 373-sq.-mi. New Territories, will revert to China under the terms of the 99-year lease that imperial Britain wrested from the tottering Qing Dynasty in 1898. Although earlier treaties gave Britain the remaining 34 sq. mi. in perpetuity, that area depends on the New Territories for food and water and cannot survive alone. Literally overnight, Kai Tak international airport, half of Hong Kong's new subway system, and most of the colony's housing would no longer exist under the shadow of the Union Jack, but rather under the five-star flag of the People's Republic.

In Hong Kong, where the most authoritarian portrait on public display shows the eyes of an anonymous Asian woman commanding citizens not to litter, the rising if still distant threat of reunification has hit like a typhoon. After Thatcher's visit, share prices on Hong Kong's stock market crashed 21% last week, while the Hong Kong dollar dropped by 4½%to U.S. $0.16, a new low. To deepen the gloom, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, John Bremridge, announced last week that the colony's economy has been faring far worse this year than expected. Real economic growth will measure only 4%; it was 11% in 1981. Exports of goods produced in Hong Kong will decline 2%. And investments will rise only 3%, after reaching 13% last year. Said a concerned businessman: "Today Hong Kong has double trouble: economic and political."

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