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On major foreign policy issues, however, the difference between Kohl and Schmidt, at least in the short term, is more likely to be one of tone rather than substance — what a Kohl aide has called "continuity with new accents." The new Chancellor will echo Schmidt's firm stand in support of the 1983 installation of intermediate-range cruise and Pershing II missiles in Western Europe, although he may face more vociferous opposition than his predecessor did from West Germany's burgeoning anti-nuclear movement. Also, Kohl is unlike ly to change West Germany's position on the building of the Soviet gas pipe line, since the project will have a direct effect on his country's business interests.
Kohl will have to tread cautiously at home. Even before his Bundestag victory last week, West Germany's powerful trade unions had begun girding for conflict with the new Chancellor, who must quickly come to grips with problems of the country's sagging economy. The most sensitive issue is social-welfare spending: at a time when 1.8 million West Germans are unemployed, businessmen are complaining loudly that 70% of their labor costs are for social benefits, the steepest percentage in Western Europe. Says Liane Launhardt, an economist for the Frankfurt-based Commerzbank: "There is no doubt that what we have done over the years is escalate the social safety net." Agrees Economist Wolfgang Baumann of the Cologne-based Federation of Industry: "What we need is a shift to supply-side economics, German-style."
Any such move is liable to trigger harsh union reaction. In response to a relatively mild Kohl proposal for limiting public-sector wage increases, Monika Wulf-Mathies, leader of the country's 1 .2 million-member civil servants union, called the plan a "declaration of war," and threatened strike action if the proposal is carried out. Having long and patiently planned his parliamentary assault on the Chancellor's office, Kohl must now prepare for all the battles that his new job will entail.
— By George Russell.
Reported by Roland Flamini and John Moody/ Bonn
*Under Article 67 of West Germany's constitutional Basic Law, a simple majority of deputies in the 497-seat Bundestag can remove the Chancellor provided that they "constructively" designate a successor. As Christian Democratic leader in 1972, Rainer Barzel tried and failed to use the provision to topple Social Democratic Chancellor Willy Brandt.