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Some observers believe that Sharon is set on retaliating against P.L.O. activity by staging a small raid, which in turn would cause the Palestinians to strike back in force. That would give Israel the excuse to mount a full-scale invasion, defeat the P.L.O. in the Beirut area and then vanquish the Syrians if they were foolish enough to get involved. The P.L.O. would be routed and, the thinking goes, would shift its attention to Jordan, overthrow King Hussein and turn the country into a Palestinian state. Israel would meanwhile annex the West Bank.
Last week a high-ranking Israeli general predicted that a major operation in Lebanon was imminent. "The coming days will provide the opening Sharon is waiting for," he said. "And he is absolutely convinced that the planned operation will solve all of Israel's problems, it will crown Sharon as the 'king of Israel.' "
As the threat of an invasion grew, U.S. Ambassador Samuel Lewis went straight to Begin to warn him off. The U.S., he cautioned, saw no reasonable justification for war. A patently unwarranted attack, he said, would isolate Israel in world opinion and further strain the nation's raveled ties to the U.S. Replied Begin: "We shall not allow the spillers of Jewish blood to escape justice." He added that the Cabinet had made "no decision" about an invasion. The U.S. chose to put the best possible interpretation on that carefully hedged assurance. Said one U.S. official: "We take Prime Minister Begin at his word." In Lebanon, P.L.O. Chairman Arafat, meeting with his organization's high command around a conference table in a subbasement deep beneath a Beirut apartment building, argued that it is to the P.L.O.'s advantage to let the Israelis strike first, both because he believes they would sustain heavy casualties and because they would be branded as the aggressors. Arafat has told his restless officers that if they let the Israelis attack and are able to hold out for ten days, the P.L.O. would get so much international support that it would have embassies in London and Paris within a month. Although some of the officers in his Fatah organization believe the P.L.O. should act immediately to support the continuing unrest in the West Bank and Gaza, Arafat seemed determined to hold out against those who were pressing for action.
Arafat was also trying, with little success, to mediate the growing dispute between the Lebanese Shi'ite Muslims and several Lebanese leftist factions. Last week the dispute suddenly erupted into battle in the south as well as in Beirut, with more than 50 casualties.