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Hardly had Reagan received the nomination when Carter sharply attacked him and his party. During a swing through Florida, the President denounced the Republicans as "men of narrow vision who are afraid of the future and whose leaders are inclined to shoot from the hip." Carter recalled that the Republicans "brought us the disgrace of Watergate," though Reagan can hardly be blamed for that. As the campaign heats up, Carter also is expected to make aggressive use of the hard-line G.O.P. platform, particularly its abandonment of support for the ERA, its call for achieving unquestioned military "superiority" over the Soviets, and other right-wing planks. In Reagan's defense, G.O.P. leaders argue that the platform reflects the views of the party's ideologues, who tend to congregate at conventions, and not necessarily Reagan's own thinking. Pennsylvania Governor Richard Thornburgh described the platform as "to the right of a convention that I believe is to the right of the candidate. 1980 is not an ideological year."
The platform is indeed to the right of Reagan on some major issues. It calls for the U.S. to become militarily superior to the Soviets, which would repudiate the policy of the Nixon, Ford and Carter Administrations in trying to maintain East-West parity. But Reagan has merely urged increased military spending.
Despite Reagan's own polls, which show him with a 15-point lead over Carter, his strategists are urging him to run as if he were an underdog. Reagan, who invented the 11th Commandment, "Thou shall not criticize other Republicans," now speaks of a 12th Commandment, "Thou shalt not be overconfident." One reason for the caution is the fear among Reagan's associates that he will make a critical mistake—in the No. 1 cliché of the Reagan camp, "shoot himself in the foot." In addition, Reagan and his aides fully recognize Carter's power as an incumbent. They expect him to pull what they call "the October surprise," meaning that shortly before Election Day, he will inflate the importance of some overseas event in an attempt to rally the country around him. Beyond this, Reagan will have to convince Americans that he would be a better President than Carter, that he really could achieve more. Reagan will have to go into more detail on his positions and, under close scrutiny, will have to explain just how he would carry them out. Even Gerald Ford, at breakfast with the editors of TIME, said: "I think that we ought to assume that his chances are less than fifty-fifty."
Reagan's strategists believe the turning point of the campaign could be the three debates planned by the League of Women Voters during the weeks of Sept. 7, Sept. 21 and Oct. 26. Despite Carter's more agile mind and mastery of detail, Reagan's aides expect him to do well in the debates; they believe Reagan would have lost the New Hampshire primary without a debate. Observed Brock: "Reagan has this remarkable ability to project decency, a sense of knowing where he is and where he is going. People relate to him. It's a talent that few people have." Said an aide: "The fact that he's not a dangerous personality bleeds through."