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Not only are private investors flocking to gold, but governments too are beginning to come back. It might even be argued that they never really left in the first place. Though U.S. policy since 1944 has been to "demonetize" gold and thereby reduce its importance as a store of any nation's wealth, the link between the dollar and gold is stronger than it has been in years.
The decline of the dollar has compelled the Federal Government to dip deeply into its own Fort Knox reserves in its efforts to prop the faltering currency. Since early 1975, the Treasury has been holding periodic gold auctions in an attempt both to drive down the metal's price and to improve the appalling U.S. balance of payments deficit. The auctions benefit the trade balance because gold sales to foreigners are counted as exports. The International Monetary Fund has also been conducting monthly auctions, but the dollar has kept plunging anyway. In fact, a key element of President Carter's November rescue plan, which finally succeeded in bringing at least the semblance of stability back to the dollar, was an agreement to double the amount of the Treasury's monthly auctions, to 1.5 million oz.
The Administration's policy of demonetizing gold will receive yet a further setback if, as is expected, eight of the nine members of Europe's Common Market next month begin pooling a portion of their official reserve holdings to create a kind of central bankers' supermoney. The European Currency Unit, or "ecu," is intended to be the precursor to a Common Market currency that would at least partly replace marks, francs, guilders and other national money. Each member nation must contribute not only paper money but also 20% of its gold reserves to the pool that will back the new ecu. In short, the ecu will be partly supported by gold. Laments one discouraged U.S. Treasury official: "The drive to demonetize gold has clearly suffered a major reversal. In just one year the weakness of the dollar has wiped out all the progress that we made in two decades."
Until recently, gold was only one of several beneficiaries of the global flight from the dollar. Investors also chased after the "hard currencies" that were not being debauched by inflation, especially the Swiss franc, the mark and the yen. As the dollar plunged, these currencies rose along with the value of gold. That is now beginning to change as more investors conclude that ultimately no industrial nation can withstand inflation and energy-related shocks. Says Guy Field, a London gold dealer: "Last year the high price of gold reflected the decline of the dollar on exchange markets. But gold is now moving ahead on its own accord as people insure themselves against the fickleness of all paper currencies."