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In the past three years, the Soviet position in the region has undergone a diplomatic battering. The Russians have lost the important role they once played in both Egypt and Sudan, but have built a new bastion in Ethiopia. (The U.S., at the same time, has strengthened its ties with Cairo and Khartoum but, with the fall of Haile Selassie and the rise of the leftist military regime in Addis Ababa, has lost out there.) The Soviets have given the Ethiopians $100 million in military aid, while Libya's Strongman Muammar Gaddafi—ever the Arab world's odd man out—has done the same. Moreover, an estimated 3,000 Cubans are now in Ethiopia helping to prepare the peasant army for its assault on Eritrea.
Ancient Enemies. The Soviet position on the Horn is highly vulnerable. Moscow has previously paid a heavy price—in military and other aid—for the friendship of Somalia. But the Somalis and the Ethiopians are ancient enemies, and the Soviet backing of Ethiopia is sharply watched in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital. When Cuban Premier Fidel Castro visited Mogadishu two months ago, he proposed that Somalia join Ethiopia and Southern Yemen in a federated state—an alliance that would have vastly strengthened Moscow's influence. Somali President Mohammed Siad Barre said no thanks, and complained bitterly about the Soviet Strela (SA-7) missiles that the Ethiopians had begun to receive from Moscow.
The Somalis' irritation is nothing compared to the bitterness of the Eritreans, who once received help from both the Soviets and the Cubans. Says an E.L.F. officer who was trained in Cuba: "All my feelings about Cuba have changed. I hate them, and that goes for the Russians too. The Arabs have proven themselves to be our brothers. That's why we are a democratic revolution, and not a Communist one."