Science: Weather: Prediction and Control

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Some scientists would like to see weather-modification programs accelerated. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado State University and others have conducted studies showing that carefully designed cloud-seeding programs can increase snowfall in areas of the Rockies by 15% or more, and Colorado authorities have appropriated nearly $200,000 for seeding clouds in four areas of their state. Lewis Grant of Colorado State University believes that clouds over the Rockies should be seeded routinely in years of abnormally low snowfall. Says he: "As far as I'm concerned, the medicine has been on the shelf ready to use for five years."

Safety Valve. But weather modification could also prove to be a mixed blessing. Ray Davis, a University of Arizona law professor, says rainmaking could be considered a form of "cloud rustling" and believes that diverting another nation's or state's cloud system could be construed as illegal diversion of its water. Says Davis, "If one country causes environmental harm to another, there is liability." He also cautions that weather modification could become a form of warfare, enabling hostile countries to cause droughts or floods in the lands of their enemies.

The long-term effects of weather modification might be even more disastrous. Meteorologists point out that tropical storms serve as an environmental safety valve, enabling the planet to distribute the enormous heat that would otherwise build up around the equator. Preventing these storms, they warn, could drastically alter the earth's atmosphere and climate, possibly for the worse. Others fear that altering weather patterns over one region of the globe could result in the disruption of rainfall and damage or even destroy vital crops elsewhere.

The more that scientists learn about the world weather machine, the more they realize that it is an engine of enormous complexity. They are only beginning to figure out how it works or predict what it will do next. Until man has a better understanding of the weather, he is wise not to tamper with it.

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