TIME CITIZENS' PANEL
To track how the voters make up their minds this election year, TIME has commissioned the public opinion research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White, Inc. to interview periodically members of a TIME Citizens' Panel. A similar panel was used to measure the mood of voting-age Americans in the months before the 1972 presidential election. The 1976 panel consists of 300 registered voters chosen at random out of a carefully selected sample of 1,500 people who are a cross section of the national electorate. The first report follows:
More than anything else—the economy, national defense and Big Government—voters this year are concerned with the two candidates' personalities. Only three out of ten panelists believe that Americans will vote primarily on the basis of the campaign issues. The majority see the election as being a choice between two men and their abilities to handle the Oval Office job. But one out of two panelists has not yet irrevocably decided how to vote and could be swayed in either direction. This group includes nominal supporters of both Carter and Ford, though Carter's backing tends to be particularly thin.
The Debates. Regardless of whom they support, eight out of ten panelists were eagerly looking forward to this week's verbal duel as a way to get to know the candidates better. Said Marie Silence, a Republican from Jacksonville: "I want to see who is quickest answering [questions] and who will be caught off guard." Predicted Harvey Hartter, a pro-Ford laborer in Fairview, Kans.: "I'll find out a lot of things about them when they are on the spot. You can find out what they really stand for."
By 4 to 3, the panelists expect Carter to do better than Ford in the debates. Explained Mrs. Howard Cable, a moderate Democrat in Hyattsville, Md.: "I think that Carter has a stronger personality." Said Eleanor Squeglia, a conservative Democrat in Medford, Mass.: "He can express his feelings better than Ford. Ford can't make speeches without a written [text] in front of him. You can't have a debate off a piece of paper." Nevertheless, many of the panelists believe Ford will benefit in the debates from his 28 years in Washington. Said Clyde Bullington, a blue-collar liberal from Madison Heights, Mich.: "Ford has the experience. Ford's been in politics longer. He knows the ropes." But many panelists believe this will be offset by Carter's legwork during the campaign. Said Alvin Harris, the black manager of a housing project in Danbury, Conn.: "Carter is more knowledgeable of the needs of the American people. Carter has done his homework, visiting different areas of the country."
Doubts about Carter. The debates are particularly important to Carter. One out of three Ford backers on the panel said he might be willing to switch to Carter, but only if Carter can demonstrate in the debates that he is clearly the better man for the job. Carter also still has to prove himself to many of his own supporters, even to some of those who cannot imagine themselves actually voting for Ford.