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Still, bad news for the West is not necessarily good news for the Soviet Union. Analysts in Washington believe that the Russian leaders are sophisticated enough to realize that the Communist victory in Indochina may, in the end, be something less than a total blessing for the Kremlin. As the principal arms purveyor to North Viet Nam, the U.S.S.R. was able to exert a degree of influence on Hanoi that may be difficult to sustain now that the war is over. Moscow is presently fearful of any encroachment by Peking—and with reason. In spite of Hanoi's professed neutralist policy, China's presence on Viet Nam's northern frontier is an undeniable geopolitical fact. Thus the struggle between Moscow and Peking for political influence and economic advantage in Indochina has only begun. As if to underscore centuries of traditional Vietnamese wariness of the Chinese, Hanoi pointedly listed the Soviet Union first and China second in its congratulatory May Day message last week.
There were also intimations last week that the Soviets are apprehensive that U.S. foreign policy reversals could lead to the installation of a new Secretary of State in Washington. If Kissinger could be forced to resign under a cloud, a number of policies with which he is associated would be in jeopardy —notably the Administration's commitment to easing trade relations with the U.S.S.R. Hungry for dollar credits and U.S. technology, the Russians are wary of such potential successors to Kissinger as Melvin Laird, whom they associate with a hard-line policy, and Donald Rumsfeld, who is viewed with suspicion because he has been U.S. Ambassador to NATO.
Renewed Strength. Western economic disarray offers the Kremlin many chances to seize political advantage. Recently, several Soviet leaders have made speeches underscoring the renewed strength of Communist parties in Portugal, Greece and Italy, and pointing to the new political opportunities for the left. In Western Europe there is a growing fear that a number of these parties might come to power. Still, there are dangers to Moscow in an untrammeled rise of the left in Europe. If Communism should prevail in Portugal, despite the party's poor showing at the polls (see story page 36), it could create a backlash elsewhere in Europe, mobilizing anti-Communist forces in France and Italy. Spain, fearful of sharing Portugal's fate, might well seek to join NATO.
In Moscow, reports Correspondent Shaw, there is no inclination to write off the U.S. as hopelessly crippled by its recent setbacks. The Soviet G.N.P. of $600 billion annually is still only half the American output. "Nevertheless," Shaw cabled last week, "there is a discernibly more confident Soviet estimation of its place in the world. Top Kremlin Theoretician Mikhail Suslov said in a speech that 'the international position of the Socialist community has never been stronger than it is today.' Rhetoric aside, that is probably true."