"It is beyond my imagination," a South Vietnamese general lamented last week. "It could all have been foreseen long ago. I repeatedly warned about the infiltration of North Vietnamese troops. Now there is no way for the present situation to be salvaged. It is finished."
What little territory remained under South Viet Nam's control shrank steadily through the week as Communist forces drew the ring around Saigon even tighter. Along the coast, North Vietnamese forces overwhelmed the towns of Phan Rang and Phan Thiet, bringing to 19 the number of provincial capitals they have captured. In the Mekong Delta they stepped up their sporadic attacks in an effort to cut Saigon off from its primary source of rice and vegetables. At Xuan Loc, a provincial capital only 40 miles east of Saigon, a valiant defense by outnumbered and outgunned government forces finally appeared to be crumbling at week's end. Only 15 miles north of Saigon, Communist artillerymen launched first assaults on the huge South Vietnamese airbase at Bien Hoa. Using 130-mm. artillery with a range of 15 miles, they momentarily disrupted ARVN'S fighter-bomber traffic.
Tearing Toward Berlin. Inevitably the next act will be the Battle of Saigon. North Vietnamese and Viet Cong sappers are already probing the outskirts of the uneasy city; mortars and rockets may soon follow. To many observers, the outcome of the battle is no longer in any doubt. According to a secret report to the U.S. Senate last week, the military situation in South Viet Nam is now "irreversible." The capital may fall as early as May 1, said, the report, and nothing short of "decisive military action" by the U.S. could affect that prognosis.
The extraordinarily rapid change in the fortunes of war in South Viet Nam has caught the world—not to mention the participants—unawares. Scarcely a month ago the ARVN was one of the largest and best-equipped armies in the world; today it is shattered. Three-quarters of the country and at least 40% of its 19 million people are under Communist rule.
Also changed is the mode of warfare. No longer is it a contest of small units using land mines and rifle squads. Today regiments and full divisions supported by armor and artillery are pitted against one another in all-out conventional warfare. It is the Communists who are on the offensive. "The North Vietnamese divisions today," remarked a European diplomat in Saigon, "remind me of good World War II armies tearing toward Berlin."
The prolonged fighting at Xuan Loc was interpreted, in the beginning, as a test of the ARVN's remaining will to fight. "I vow to hold Xuan Loc," declared the 18th Division commander, Brigadier General Le Minh Dao. "I don't care how many divisions the other side sends against me, I will knock them down."