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Still, given the collapse of the military effort, opposition to Thieu's government is bound to increase, especially among Saigon's strongly non-Communist conservative groups. The day after the arrests, Ky and Father Thanh held a news conference to announce the formation of an Action Committee for National Salvation that would press Thieu to relinquish his near absolute power. None of the action committee sponsors favored an overthrow of Thieu; indeed, they seemed to believe that a coup would only further lessen public confidence in the government. But the conservative opposition argued that South Viet Nam now needs a strong, broadly representative, anti-Communist movement while reorganizing the army to defend a smaller perimeter around Saigon and part of the rice-rich Mekong Delta. "The present atmosphere of panic is like China in 1949," said one of the country's most respected political leaders. "We can no longer count on the American forces, and we must act quickly to save ourselves."
The emergence of Ky's action committee and the arrests of right-wing oppositionists helped start a flurry of coup rumors in Saigon. But in fact there is only an outside chance of Thieu being removed by his present opponents. For one thing, the action committee is still not united with Saigon's other main non-Communist opposition force, the most militant Buddhists, who favor entering directly into a coalition government with the Communists. Neither Ky nor General Duong Van ("Big") Minh, an ex-chief of state who now leads the Buddhist opposition, seems to have enough of a personal following to succeed in replacing Thieu. Moreover, if government forces stop the Communist advance in Military Region III, the eleven-province area around Saigon, then much of the pressure on Thieu will evaporate.
More crucial to Thieu than the opposition moves is whether the U.S. Congress will approve the $300 million in additional military aid requested by President Ford. That approval seems as unlikely as ever. Nor does the "compromise" described by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at his news conference last week — a threeyear, $5.5 billion aid program — have a much better chance.
Virtually everything in Viet Nam now hinges on ARVN's ability to stem the Communist advance. Most military analysts feel that the decisive battle will be fought in Military Region III. Though three or four full divisions fell apart during the retreat from the north, South Viet Nam still has three divisions, plus five groups of rangers and three airborne brigades deployed around the capital. Many of these troops are highly regarded by Pentagon analysts and apparently have not been badly demoralized by the military reverses suffered in the north. Moreover, the capital area's supply dumps remain well stocked.
Thus most military experts predicted that Saigon — and South Viet Nam — would not fall this year. "But its long-term future is not promising," said a U.S. Government expert.
Of that there was little doubt. The Communist advance has been more devastating than anybody expected.