(3 of 3)
The total of Jews permitted to leave the Soviet Union since Jan. 1 is 17,000. The figure is expected to be about 50,000 by the end of the year, compared with 30,000 in 1978 and 16,700 in 1977. Moreover, bureaucratic hassling of Soviet Jews who apply for exit visas has declined dramatically. It may be that the Soviets now would simply be glad to get rid of the problem. By letting some dissidents leave, U.S. officials suggest, the Soviets can eliminate them as focal points for unrest. Similar reasoning may have helped persuade the Kremlin to permit freer emigration by Jews. Said Adam Ulam, a Russian expert at Harvard: "From the Soviet point of view, once you cannot shoot people on a large scale, they might as well be allowed to migrate."
The chief reason for the more relaxed policy, in the view of U.S. analysts, is American public opinion. Said a Carter Administration official: "The Kremlin seems to have decided that it wasn't getting anywhere in taking a tough attitude toward the U.S. They still believe that dissidents are traitors, insane or both. But Moscow apparently came to a greater awareness of the liabilities of confrontation on this issue."
Second only to SALT among Soviet aims is repeal of the 1974 Jackson-Vanik amendment, which withholds most-favored-nation status from the U.S.S.R. until Moscow permits free emigration. Lifting the amendment would make the U.S.S.R. eligible for generous credits to pay for American goods and reduce tariffs on Soviet goods shipped to the U.S. The U.S. is clearly considering granting most-favored-nation status to Moscow's nemesis: China.
Washington Senator Henry ("Scoop") Jackson insists on explicit Soviet assurances on emigration before the amendment is repealed. Anything less, said an aide, "would be a terrible signal. We would indicate to them that we are willing to bend the law to accommodate them." On the other hand, Ohio Congressman Charles Vanik, who returned last week from a ten-day trip to Moscow and Leningrad, is willing to waive the restrictions without assurances, as long as "this improved climate on emigration is really Soviet policy."
An outright promise by the Soviets to ease emigration rules permanently seems unlikely. Still, the Administration intends to avoid pressure tactics for the time being. Said an Administration official: "It is important that we show them our policy is not designed to undermine them or to rub their noses in the dirt."
Last week's cautious progress on several fronts made it clear that the entire state of U.S.-Soviet relations is at a point of great potentiality for lasting change.
* One pretense that Moscow did not abandon is its claim that the U.S. is the persecutor of dissidents. It awarded the Lenin Peace Prize to Communist Angela Davis, a onetime activist who now lectures at San Francisco State University on ethnic and women's studies. Davis, told reporters that publicity about Soviet dissidents was "a smokescreen to prevent Americans from understanding oppression at home."