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What the protesters do have in common is bitter frustration over the failure of many of the Shah's economic programs, the rising inflation brought on by oil wealth, the denial of political rights, and years of repressive and insensitive rule. Says a West German foreign-office expert: "For too long, the Shah paid insufficient attention to political pressure groups from right and left, dismissed them as rabble-rousers, and was convinced that his lifting Iran economically at a rapid pace would satisfy most of his people. He also thought that he could keep things under control by the traditional method of ruling with a firm, indeed oppressive, hand. It clearly has not worked."
These failures were bound to invite both U.S. concern and Soviet adventurism because the area is of immense strategic importance. For its part, the U.S. has not commented publicly on the question of Soviet interference in Iran, but some observers do not rule it out. Moscow maintains a diplomatic mission in Tehran that is far bigger than that of the U.S. Intelligence officials assume that the Soviet embassy and consular offices provide cover for large numbers of KGB operatives. What is Moscow's aim? "From the Soviet standpoint," says one Western official, "the game here is pretty simple: worse is better. The Shah is their enemy, and anybody who opposes him is to be supported." Adds a former U.S. diplomat: "If you were in the Kremlin, you would say to yourself, what do we do? You strike at the most vulnerable point, and that point is the Persian Gulf. In effect, you rattle the Shah's bird cage. You rattle it hard. This is what they are doing. But let's not get dishonest. Let's not also say that everybody is a Communist. That's not necessarily true. This is power politics we're playing here today. This is not ideology."
The Shah nonetheless believes that Iran's present turmoil can be attributed to a Communist conspiracy, which he feels has always been at the root of his troubles. In a press conference last month he repeated that argument. "Today," he declared, "the plot is the same, and I have a great deal of information that shows that the rioters receive orders from the Communists." Such is the level of concern in the Shah's regime that there is even talk in high circles of another possible villain: the CIA, which is being accused of deliberately infiltrating the opposition so that its agents would be in place in the new government if the Shah were overthrown.
In any case, the fact is that Iran's own internal problems brought the Shah to the brink of disaster. As frustrations mounted over the months, Iranians turned to their Islamic religious leaders—the mullahs—who, as it happens, have deep grievances of their own. For centuries, the daily lives of the Persians were guided by conservative mullahs of the Shi'ite sect, whose influence embraced not only the country's spiritual life but also its secular culture and economic institutions.
Thus the Shi'ite leaders felt threatened when the Shah set out to create a Western-style nation in the 20th century mold. He called his campaign the White (for bloodless) Revolution. Later it was renamed the Shah-People's Revolution, but changing the name did not prevent the inevitable clash of cultures.
In defiance of the mullahs, the Shah ordered widespread land reforms, divesting the Shi'ite clergy of their vast holdings. The Shah scheduled a referendum on land reform and won his way by a wide margin. He decreed new privileges for women, including the right to vote and to attend institutions of higher learning. In June 1963 the mullahs, having failed to block the Shah's reforms, called their people into the streets. Demonstrations turned into riots, and the Shah sent in his troops. When the rioting stopped several days later, 200 people were dead, and the leader of the mullah opposition, Ayatullah Khomeini, was sent into exile.
Khomeini lives in Iraq and still leads the opposition against the Shah. "The people will not rest," he declared last month, "until the Pahlavi rule has been swept away and all traces of tyranny have disappeared." Scoffing at the Shah's promise to allow free elections next year, Khomeini said: "As long as the Shah's satanic power prevails, not a single true representative of the people can possibly be elected."