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Beyond that, Canada is America's largest commercial partner, with a joint volume of trade that reached $50 billion last year. U.S. investments in Canada total some $30 billion; Canadian investments in the U.S. add up to $5 billion. The two countries are tied together in countless undertakings. Among them are the joint operation of the St. Lawrence Seaway and, most recently, the $12 billion Alcan pipeline, which will bring Alaskan natural gas to the Lower 48 by 1983. Such projects could be upset or stopped by Quebec's separation.
Canada and the U.S. are also linked in defense matters, primarily by NATO and the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD). There are NORAD radar installations in Quebec. One-third of Canada's air interceptor force is stationed there. Canadian antisubmarine forces protect the Gulf of St. Lawrence and other coastal waters from the dangers of submarine missile attack. Despite René Lévesque's assurances, there is no hard guarantee that an independent Quebec would—or could—take part in the same defensive commitments.
Quebec separation has hurried along a change in Canadian-U.S. relations—for the better. For many reasons, including the Viet Nam War and some of Richard Nixon's economic policies, chilliness set in during the early '70s. The ebbing of good will was reinforced, ironically enough, by a tide of nationalism in English-speaking Canada. Trudeau's government embarked on a series of irritations of the U.S. involving gas and oil export price hikes without the usual neighborly consultation, and other commercial matters (including tax-law changes that resulted in the closing of TIME'S special Canadian editorial edition).
Ottawa's relations with the U.S. began to improve markedly around the time of Lévesque's victory. Canadian nationalism, which had begun to peak, subsided. Cultural chauvinism, however, still shows signs of life, especially in Ontario. Last summer Canada's government-owned ra-SYGMA djo network canceled a production of Richard HI when native-born actors protested the hiring of British citizens —including Actress Maggie Smith —for the lead roles. On the political front, Prime Minister Trudeau has a far closer relationship with Jimmy Carter than he did with Richard Nixon or with Gerald Ford. Carter, in turn, has placed more emphasis on North American harmony than his predecessors did. Thus when Vice President Walter Mondale returned from Ottawa last month, he declared that relations with Canada "have probably never been better."
How that relationship will continue now hangs on Canada's fate. The odds on Lévesque's success currently seem low, but the Parti Québécois will persevere in its separatist mission. Should it succeed, a rump Canada would undoubtedly fall further within the U.S. economic orbit.
Another concern is that in the struggle, the government in Ottawa —which is already weak by U.S. standards—will lose so much authority that Canada will have trouble directing its social and economic future.
Much now rests upon the shoulders of Pierre Trudeau, who