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Barring disaster, the Begin-Sadat Christmas meetings could produce an umbrella declaration of principles and perhaps a token arrangement of mutual good will. After that, the Cairo conference already in session could itself be raised to the ministerial level for purposes of negotiating a detailed settlement. Sadat has told TIME (see interview) of his willingness to make his arrangements with Begin, and then inform the other Arab states that he has negotiated a framework in which they too can negotiate. In effect, Sadat is thinking of a separate peace with sequels—leaving the other Arabs to work on their own special accommodations. To avoid appearing to have made his own deal at the expense of his Arab colleagues, Sadat could refuse to sign a formal peace treaty but instead initial a memorandum of understanding that would call for major withdrawals by Israel from the occupied territories. This might tempt Jordan, and eventually Syria, to talk separately with Israel.
Saudi Arabia, with its oil wealth and its links to both moderates and rejectionists, remains crucial to any permanent peace in the Middle East. Although the Saudis have been cautious since the beginning of Sadat's initiative, it seems unlikely that they would stand in the way of a settlement. They have not only invested heavily in Egypt's future, they have a political and economic investment in Middle East stability. The Saudis could play a key role in reconciling the Syrians to the Egyptian design for peace. The Syrian economy is in grave difficulty, with inflation running at 25%. If the Saudis offered major financial backing in return for a Syrian-Egyptian reconciliation, President Hafez Assad might have to assent, no matter how much he dislikes the idea of negotiating with Israel. But Assad's position is a delicate one. He belongs to a minority Muslim sect (the Alawites), and his seven-year-old regime is the longest that Syria has managed since 1946. Should he accept a