The Soviet Union likes to boast that it is the land of the future. Yet in the one technology most essential for industrial and scientific progress, the country is far behind. Western experts believe Soviet computer development trails the U.S.'s by three to ten years, depending on the segment of technology, and the gap is not closing.
The state of Communist computer technology has been the focus of an important, largely behind-the-scenes debate in Washington over the wisdom of selling late-model machines to the U.S.S.R. Because advanced computers are essential to the development of modern weaponry, the U.S. and its NATO allies have long prohibited their export to a potential enemy. Now the Administration has reaffirmed that decision by blocking the sale to the Soviets of an advanced $13 million computer called the Cyber 76.
Central Brain. The U.S.S.R. had been seeking to buy the Cyber 76 from its manufacturer, California-based Control Data Corp., for three years. The announced use: a United Nations-sponsored, worldwide weather-forecasting system. Control Data had eagerly sought the necessary Commerce Department export license. To allay fears that the computer might be diverted to military purposes, the company pledged that its own technicians would tend the machine, which would be programmed to cry foul at the first attempt to alter its mission.
Nonetheless, Defense Department scientists became increasingly alarmed at the prospects of a Cyber 76 sitting in Moscow—and with good reason. An earlier Control Data model—the Cyber 74—is the central brain of the U.S. defense system. Installed in the Pentagon, the National Security Agency and numerous secret locations, the 74s perform such tasks as interpreting data relayed back from surveillance satellites arcing over the Soviet Union, deciphering intercepted codes and analyzing tracking reports on Russian submarines.
Carter, who at first had been in favor of the Cyber 76 deal, began to have second thoughts, and they were soon passed along to Commerce. Result: export license denied.
It was a sound decision. Contrary to the rosy projections of some Western computer makers, the Soviet Union in the immediate future will probably not be a lucrative market for Western equipment, even if the NATO nations drop their sales restrictions. Not only does Moscow lack the hard currency for large-scale purchases of Western equipment, but it also is pumping big amounts ($10 billion during 1970-75) into the development of its own computer industry, which has an estimated 80 plants employing 300,000 people. One Western expert, Bohdan Szuprowicz, a Polish-born authority on Soviet computers who advises major U.S. companies, sees signs that Moscow has been assembling only a sample of the most advanced Western computers it is permitted to buy as patterns for its own models. Says he: "It appears as if someone behind the scenes orchestrated the import of the latest obtainable Western computers."