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Shrinking Base. Carter's relatively narrow victory may also limit the benefits he can confer on blacks. They were only one element of a coalition that could come unstuck, shrinking Carter's base—and his re-election chances. The softest support of all may prove to be the white Southern voters who saw him as moderately conservative. Southern whites, after all, gave about three-quarters of their votes to Richard Nixon in 1972. If Carter seems to be overly attentive to blacks, they may quickly desert him. Carter's own pollster, Pat Caddell, feels that the Democratic vote among white Southerners was abnormally large; only Native Son Carter could have captured it this year.
A greater long-range peril for the Democrats may be the losing of the West, which gave Ford about as many electoral votes (98) as Carter gained in the South (108). Moreover, the old Democratic coalition proved that it can no longer be counted on. Carter's share of the votes from ethnic groups such as the Irish, the Italians and the Eastern Europeans was reduced from most recent previous Democratic presidential campaigns. As Caddell acknowledged, Democrats will have to garner more moderate, middle-class votes in the industrial North in order to win in the future. In recognition of this trend, Carter offered favors gingerly and sparingly to the groups supporting him during the campaign. He may have to be similarly circumspect as President.