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Though the government has been able to harry the N.P.A. by military force, the rebel movement still shows signs of considerable strength. Over the past four years, N.P.A. activity has spread from its original coastal stronghold of Isabela in northern Luzon all the way through the rural areas of the Eastern Archipelago Provinces and even to parts of Mindanao, which is also troubled by the far larger rebellion of Moslem separatists. Though the N.P.A.'s armed strength may be no more than 2,000 to 3,000, its political activists, drawn largely from educated urban youths, are probably far more numerous. They have established effective, well-concealed cells in such places as the squalid squatter areas of Manila as well as among low-paid farm laborers.
In the long run, the growth of Communist political influence poses a greater danger to the Marcos regime than the N.P.A.'s ineffectual military wing. At the same time, part of Marcos' problem is growing unrest—particularly among university students and the Christian churches—over the continuation of martial law, with its suspension of civil liberties. The government plans a referendum next month on the retention of martial law. Two previous referendums in 1973 and 1975 indicated yes by some 90%. This time the results are widely believed to have been equally lutong macao, or precooked.
*Aquino has been brought before military tribunals three times since his arrest, but each time the case was postponed when he eloquently rejected the rights of Marcos' martial law regime to try him.