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Reagan has budding campaign organizations in the other early-primary states, like Illinois and North Carolina, and a big effort back home in California (where the vote will be on June 8, last day of the primary campaign). In a majority of the other states, however, organizing has not yet begun. At this early stage, most experts rate Ford ahead in all states but those with large concentrations of conservative voters, notably Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nevada and Oklahoma. Nationwide, a Gallup poll of 339 Republicans found Ford ahead of Reagan, 58% to 36%. But that poll was taken just before Ford's Cabinet shakeup, and the situation could easily change. Indeed, an NBC telephone poll of 245 Republicans just after the shake-up gave Reagan 44%, Ford 43%. Says a top Midwestern Republican who backs Ford: "Reagan's attracting the same crowd that backed Barry Goldwater. The minute he announces, they're going to pop out of the woodwork. They run for delegate slots, are very vocal and will churn everything up."
With Reagan on the offensive, Ford has thus far failed to develop a successful counterstrategy. He has veered to the right, including vetoing the school-lunch bill and calling for cutbacks in a variety of social programs, only to disenchant moderate Republicans. He has campaigned across the country, championing the themes of fiscal integrity, a strong national defense and the evils of Big Government, yet has not excited the public. He permitted, and probably encouraged, Nelson Rockefeller to withdraw in 1976, but still did not appease conservatives. Says one of his political advisers: "The people in the Ford campaign seem reasonably confident. But I sense panic on the part of Ford's supporters on Capitol Hill. They're very discouraged and depressed. They're afraid that Reagan at the head of the ticket would take them all down to defeat, and they think it may already be too late for Ford to recover."
Ford's advisers are counting on Stuart Spencer, who recently signed on as the campaign's political director, to build up some steam. Spencer was largely responsible for putting together Reagan's successful gubernatorial campaign in 1966, and he plans to use similar techniques for Ford. To help develop ideas for the President's State of the Union message in January, which will amount to his campaign platform, Spencer has hired Market Opinion Research of Detroit to identify Ford's constituency and define the issues that appeal to it.
I hat seems to be the President's [chief difficulty, however, is the blandness of his personality and campaigning style, a serious handicap in a race with Reagan, who provokes an emotional reaction that probably wins him as many converts as do his views. Indeed, both candidates share similar basic philosophies, though Ford has more freedom to maneuver; he can broaden his appeal to moderates if he chooses. Says former Minnesota Governor Harold LeVander: "Reagan and Ford are like two peas in a pod. They may see themselves differently, but here in Minnesota, we see them both as rock-ribbed Republicans."